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REDDIT

Do I need to reinvent my strategy to hedge recession?

P
Apr 11, 2025 · 07:40

Investment market: USA

This strategy is for a large pool of money I’m growing for house purchase in a couple of years (if that event works out, we’ll see where the economy is).

Until recently, I kept half of the downpayment in SPY ETF. I had been holding/buying into this each month for a long time and benefitted well from the post-pandemic bounce back.

At the beginning on this year to hedge risk, I moved other half I moved into tbills and started laddering 4 week bills with additional money each month. About 4.3% return, better than HYSAs anyway when I started.

Then mid March I sold all my SPY funds as things got iffy with the tarrifs; again it’s because I want to use this money in a couple of years. I’m sure things will bounce back, but not worth the stress.

I could start laddering the whole pot in bills, but I’m not sure these will still have a decent return if we go into a recession. I was too young to invest in the last US recession, so what’s the best way to think about if/how I should change my strategy?

Some alternatives I know are popular in recessions:
* Gold (which for this I’d do an ETF)
* Bonds, not bills (but I need to review if the maturity rates are suitable, I want to keep adding money every month)

Thanks for any advice!