SO there are no fabulous prizes other than maybe trying to catch a falling knife but lets put forth our best estimates of where the bottom could be. If possible be sure to include your reasoning. Here is my guess:
So the S&P was at 6144 on Feb 19th then we had the first Tariff shock and it sank roughly to 5500 (in part bouncing off 10% correction and then going back to about 5600-5700 range). At that time Goldman Sachs noted consensus was the tariff announcement in early April would yield about 8% so the market was priced about right going into April 2nd (about 8% down from peak). Then we had the announcement with a weighted average of about 24% tariff across all trading partners (JP Morgan numbers) rather that the 8% the market expected. If it were only that simple then we could reasonably expect the pricing in to be 24% below the 6144 peak or around another 14% down from the 5500 short term bottom before the april 2 announcement. That number is about S&P 4700.
BUT the market also now knows atleast some countries / regions will enact tariffs of there own in response although not all will. This stands to further cause impact but remember they also clearly realize that reprisal tariffs hurt there own companies as much as they hurt the US also, the German, Spanish, Italian finance ministers have even voiced this since the announcement . SO Im going to guess they take a more modest approach on average across all trading partners. Im going to guess they do what the market expected the US to do in the first place which is a consensus of 8%. So that takes 4700 down by another 8% to just around 4300. If they were to do 10% instead then that would be more like 4200. The S&P was trading at around 24 P:E on april 2, income will ofcourse dip going forward but the trailing P:E would be reduced to about 18. It could easily overshoot but im sticking to my guess of **4300** what is everyone elses best guess.