I have been following private markets for quite sometime. I make posts about in in 'affluent' forums yet get downvoted as it appears they don't understand the issue.
Pensions are around 20-25% PE invested, Endowments around 55-65%. Retail is less than 3-4%
Notice the massive push on youtube from the wealthy about private markets (Tony Robbins kicked it off). How Berkshire made most of its money in private markets. How Blackstone has as well. The issue? They were astute deal hunters. The fact that they are even entertaining this to individuals investors= they are done trading amongst themselves, big names want to cash out and realize gains. The problem? Who on earth is going to buy it. Watch these fireside chats (they joke about foreign investors buying these overvalued assets).
Now the multi trillion dollar question. Does retail/individual buy the hype and start allocating their money to PE? History with crypto and other schemes promising BIG returns= YES they are just going to plow money and chase returns. Because it sounds sexy, if PE can market this correctly they might have a shot.
If this is the case then BX is a huge winner. If for some reason individual investors sharpen their pencils and reject this unloading of assets on them, then HOUSTON WE HAVE A PROBLEM. Like a serious problem.
This would mean there are no bagholders to dump these private companies onto.
Thoughts on this? While private markets can be lucrative, when someone starts to sell you something= they think they reached the max they squeeze out of the name.