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REDDIT

Why is the bond market not starting to panic about the USG's ability to meet its servicing obligations?

T
Feb 14, 2025 · 14:35

The United States government is headed for a default within the next few years. Both interest and non-interest outlays are rising faster than revenue. The annual deficit is $2T and rising. Annual interest outlays are now over $1T. The deficit is growing in part now due to interest outlays, which keep growing. At 5% yields, each year adds $100B in interest payments. If and when the deficit reaches $3T, in the not too distant future, that'll be an extra $150B a year in interest. We're looking at annual interest outlays of $2 trillion+ by the end of the decade. The only solutions are either massive tax increases, or massive cuts to entitlement spending. Asking the average American to pay an extra $200+ in federal income taxes per paycheck would be very politically unpopular, and the anti-tax philosophy of the incumbent party isn't helping. Cutting entitlements means basically abolishing Medicare and/or Medicaid in their entireties, which would be very politically unpopular with the most reliable voter bloc of all: seniors. The default path is default. Monetization of the debt isn't going to happen. Even if it did, it would still lead to default down the road, as interest payments would consume all tax revenue, and the markets trust in the dollar would be decimated.

So why is the bond market not starting to panic about treasuries?