Trader banks $8M on their $8M bet on $VIX C24 from 3 weeks ago. Market tanked since, what a call. Market is currently at an inflection point.
[17 days ago, I posted about how $8M worth of VIX 24/25 calls ](https://www.reddit.com/r/OptionsMillionaire/comments/1iu39uc/heavy_vix_calling_earlier_this_week_last_time_we/)were bought over the course of three days. That day, I posted one of my first YT shorts saying this had parallels between what we saw in the first carry trade shake-out in August 2024 (massive calls were bought in mid-July at relatively same order of magnitude). This call/these calls were effectively the top.
[115,000ish contracts bought at $0.75ish at the VIX C24.](https://preview.redd.it/8yhz6chmypne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=6761b624aac73af2cf364036c669eaf593c74226)
It looks like that trader has taken *some* off the table (67% of the contracts, sold at a 180% profit). Cleared $8M in gains and still has 32% of their position running.
[77,000ish contracts sold at $2.10ish](https://preview.redd.it/68dpvbwuypne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=4008437032cc2a1fa7618e1977e15abf0e533e53)
[A week later, I posted about how the C60/65/70/75 were being bought in size.](https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1izrolz/some_trader_just_bought_another_8m_in_vix_calls/) Those were filled at less than 0.45. I argued that this was a trader betting on more pain ahead. The market tanked another 3% since.
[Today, these are marked at break-even\(ish\). But we did have a big Vix vacuum on Friday and before that these perceived lotto ticket\/hedges were up anywhere from 10-15%](https://preview.redd.it/w6opo570zpne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=af19621a9c7e46bbb26625ff85562400c8db79ec)
Point being, though some counter-argued saying that these could be hedges against massive huge AUM, I am still of the opinion that someone out there knew that the market was going to be sell-off to a degree. Since then, all major indices have reverted back to the 200D MA. Puts have paid off.
[The market is at a critical juncture. Watch this closely as we may be at an inflection point.](https://preview.redd.it/542fsbb2zpne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=b181675dfc8b7203e21c5b9c1e5d9cf5c617ae69)
What’s next? Hard to say. Buying puts at these levels at elevated volatility means you’re risking more to make less (insurance/puts are expensive), even if you’re directionally right. Personally, I think we’re at the beginning of a deflationary cycle as evidenced by things like $WMT, $COST earnings showing consumer weakness, Oil and $IWM has gotten bodied and job market is softening, to name a few. “The economy is fine”, says JPOW, well – it looks pretty fucking far from fine.
$TLT calls and the index itself is now my main play. We saw some aggressive $TLT action last week, and IV is still relatively low. Trump may not be able to force the Fed’s hand, but his tariff flip-flopping and public sector job cuts could shake up markets. Yes, tariffs are inflationary, but the rapid policy shifts could create short-term deflationary pressure—leading investors to a *flight to quality* in Treasuries.
[Big money moving silent on the options chain in the TLT](https://preview.redd.it/w06y0kg3zpne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0458fc535ce06663211d6b962901685ff2725f56)
Also, if rates don’t go lower. We’re fucked.
Wild times.
https://preview.redd.it/7brf4hj4zpne1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=0140b35010481a1ef5f922ec52528c8e22933ee4
TL:DR –
* Trader who bet on volatility (Feb 19) effectively called the top (Feb 20). Market has been in shambles since, but betting on more downside is very expensive.
* The stock market is currently at a key technical level (200MA), and these are key levels to watch in the next week.
* The bond market is all over the place, but the economy is showing signs of weakness and I suspect rates should head lower.
Active on YT/X
Not financial advice.