Posts
Why Snap is a great value buy right now
(I don’t have time to summarize but this is a copy of a email I sent to a investor activist fund\[all of these ideas are 100% authentic, yes I used a LLM to polish it but if u ai check it it’s 60% my own writing so if u have …
FICO's Moat in a World With VantageScore 4.0
Historically, FICO was a toll road on mortgage originations. The regulator (FHFA), who governs the Government-Sponsored Enterprises (GSE - Fannie / Freddie) required a FICO score for every application, and this dynamic remained in place until recently. In July 2025 the FHFA announced that VantageScore 4.0 could be used as …
Where do you find stock data?
For many years, I have cross-referenced data from Alphaspread (for the DCF), Dataroma and Stockcircle to track the big whales, Google finance for the general overview, Tranding view for a deeper analysis with indicators and Quiver Quantitative for the congress moves (even if it'S too late with the 45 days …
Brightstar Lottery Q2 results tomorrow - value incoming
If you've seen my previous posts, I've been tracking the jackpot environment for Brightstar Lottery which the company points to when reporting good/bad EPS for each quarter. Q2 was ok for the jackpot environment and Q3 has been good so far, and still on track to be a great quarter …
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Hopefully, you were able to take advantage of the BellRing Brands & Build-A-Bear stock when I first mentioned them. You could have gotten a decent return in a short amount of time. If you think there’s a case for a long term hold in either one of those companies, please …
"The Most Important Thing" Overview | How Howard Marks Beat the Market
A video overview of "The Most Important Thing" by Howard Marks where I go over 10 of his 20 most important things and explain (somewhat) briefly, his investment philosophy behind his market outperformace over some very harsh and volatile decades. Providing aime of my favorite quotes and charts from the …
Earnings lesson: when a company's hottest segment runs through a 50/50 JV, check the noncontrolling interest line
Something in an earnings report this week is a clean example of a pattern worth checking on any company you look at: the consolidated joint venture. Solstice Advanced Materials (the specialty chemicals business Honeywell spun off last year) reported Q2 on Thursday. They beat their own guidance and raised the …
DLO (dLocal): how real is the in-sourcing risk?
Long-time holder trying to stress-test the main bear point. dLocal is a high-quality, asset-light EM payments business — one API for global merchants across \~40 emerging markets. The moat is licensing/compliance breadth, and it looks durable: even Stripe didn’t build Brazilian Pix itself, it partnered with EBANX (a dLocal competitor) …
Situational Unawareness: inside a portfolio's rabbit hole. ( Part 2)
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Is the Cloud business doomed?
We've seen large revenue growth for Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud which have carried the growth and offset the failed ventures of these companies. There's also the Neocloud companies that are building and growing like Coreweave and SpaceX. However there are problems: 1. The cost of maintaining …