Posts
Lululemon: 2Q26 Immediate Call Postmortem
[Free] Special Situations Digest #30 (Aug 30, 2026): 549 Global Situations
Selling FDS when true FCF yield compressed below 6%. Starting VCISY and ADRNY at 12%+ true FCF yields with ECB independence as the macro thesis. Also: has anyone solved the IFRS XBRL tag mapping problem for European ADR analysis? Let me know.
The first is the FDS discipline question. I bought FDS in early 2026 when its true FCF yield was above 8% and the market was pricing it as an AI casualty. The thesis: it died of a theory, not of an actual deterioration in its business. Four consecutive quarters of …
Hypergrowth at a Value-Stock Price
Substack writeup on Sigenergy (free to read)
Zetrix at 2x PE
The Two Trillion Dollar Bottleneck: AI & Energy
For a few years now the hyperscalers have been spending agressively, but it seems to me like spending this money is actually the easy part of the equation. If we add up the contracted, not yet delivered cloud demand (Remaining Performance Obligations - RPO) of the hyperscalers (**Microsoft**, **Oracle**, **Google** …
Burry's Tragic Algebra: the NASDAQ-100 keeps 83 cents of every reported dollar, and break-even is 87%
Burry's recent work swaps the GAAP stock-comp charge for what shareholders actually lose. The formula is Ω = C + V. V is the market value of shares delivered to employees, C is withholding tax net of option proceeds. Owners' earnings are N + G − Ω, and ΔE is …
Coinbase and MSTR are not a Bitcoin position
I don't own Coinbase or Strategy. They're not a bitcoin position. I keep seeing both talked about as if that's how you own bitcoin. I don't buy it. Strategy's August 17 8-K is the one that made this obvious. 840,447 BTC. That week they bought none and sold none. They …
My First Equity Research Report on Haleon (HLN) - BUY Rating, $11.50 PT. Tear it apart.
I’m learning equity research and decided to make Haleon my first proper deep dive. I’ve tried to approach it like an actual institutional-style report: investment thesis, five-year financials, a DCF with defended assumptions, risk factors, catalysts, and, ultimately, a clear BUY/SELL call. I’ve also gone through the annual report, MD&A, …