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REDDIT

Oversold? Why I am Buying / DCA-ing the Dip On Monday

D
Feb 22, 2025 · 23:57

A lot of Friday sell off was an amalgamation of many things, but here's why I think it's oversold and that that a bounce is coming. Many forgot that the monthly expiration was Friday for the options market. Max pain was around 601 for SPY (where most contracts expire worthless). Market makers dumped most of their hedge by selling their stocks as max pain was hit on monthly expiration and a ton of calls expired so they don't need to deliver the stocks owed (which I bet they will bid back on Monday). Also a lot of puts were bought so they needed to short the market even more in order to hedge (there's a lot of put interest right now; almost a 3:1 ratio). All of this compounded and caused a massive 100 point drop in the market.

Sure the Tariff narrative is sold to us create to ton of bearish sentiment, but as you guys saw, if he says one thing about pausing tariffs, striking a deal, or pausing their unemployment plan, then the market will bounce to higher highs, and those that sold at bottom are going to end up having to buy at the top.

Plan: Overall, I am gonna stick to my plan of not trying to time the bottom, and continue to buy each dip. A lot of stocks like CFLT, UPST, APP, and even HOOD are back to near pre-earning levels even after a successful earnings beat. So as long as NVIDIA doesn't completely s\*\*\* the bed and if Jpowell doesn't decide to hike rates during FOMC, then I am DCAing and buying the dip at open. Buy (slowly) when most others are fearful.