$MO: The Ultimate Sleeper Play for Federal Weed Legalization 🚬💨
The Setup: Why Legal Weed is Currently a Mess
Right now, the U.S. cannabis industry is a state-by-state clown show thanks to federal prohibition. Here’s why:
**No interstate commerce** – Oversupply in places like Oregon and California, while other states have shortages. No way to balance the market.
**Banking restrictions –** Companies can’t use normal financial services, which chokes growth.
**Insane taxes & regulation** – Small operators get crushed while large ones struggle to scale.
**Race to the bottom in pricing** – Every state is its own island, leading to wild price swings and collapsing margins. States like California have also killed a lot of small businesses due to taxation and overregulation concerns.
This is why weed stocks have been absolute volatile trash investments for years. But here’s where things get interesting: Once federal legalization happens, the real money steps in.
Enter Big Tobacco:
Big Tobacco isn’t just watching from the sidelines—they’re actively positioning themselves to dominate cannabis once the barriers fall. Altria ($MO) is the best positioned player. Here’s why:
🔥 $MO already owns a 42% stake in **Cronos Group ($CRON),** a cannabis company. They’re just waiting for the go signal.
🔥 $MO has unparalleled supply chain expertise. They know how to mass-produce and distribute smokable products at scale, unlike the mom-and-pop weed farms struggling to survive.
🔥 They own the shelf space. Marlboro-level brand recognition and retail presence will instantly push competitors out.
🔥 They have government connections and lobbying power. When regulations change, they’ll be writing the rules to benefit themselves.
🔥 They print cash. $MO has a 7.5% dividend yield and a steady cash flow machine to fund expansion into cannabis. Little to no R&D money is required so the printing happens and the dividend is safe.
🔥 Huge moat in the industry, relatively few big players in general
What Happens When:
1. The SAFE Banking Act is passed
2. Marijuana is federally decriminalized and/or legalized
🚀 Interstate commerce opens up – The weak players die, and the big players consolidate.
🚀 Big Tobacco, Big Alcohol, and Big Pharma take over. $MO will have the lowest costs, best branding, and best lobbying power.
🚀 Wall Street piles in. Right now, weed stocks are for retail bagholders. Once it’s legal, serious money will move in, and the winners (like $MO) will see insane upside.
🚀 Marlboro Green? Altria has already trademarked names for a future cannabis brand. They’re just waiting for the right time.
The Trade: Why $MO is a Boring, Safe, and Profitable Play
$MO is cheap right now (~low $50s/share, a great 2024 and many years of going sideways).
Pays a fat 7.5% dividend while you wait for federal legalization and is a defense stock during these possibly troubling times of market turbulence. $MO buys back shares and it has a forward p/e of something like 9.
Once weed goes legal, they’re going to dominate the industry overnight.
This is a long-term, low-risk play with massive potential upside. While everyone is gambling on garbage-tier weed stocks, $MO is just waiting for its moment. If you are a bagholder, you can at least enjoy the fat dividend.
🚬💨 Big Tobacco always wins. 🚬💨
Disclosure: Long $MO, not financial advice