<h3><strong><a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/ckrAp5FJzk">BE IN THE KNOW, BEFORE EVERYONE ELSE</a></strong></h3><p>A PREMIUM MEMBERSHIP GIVES YOU THE CRITICAL ADVANTAGE.</p><p>SIGN UP <a href="https://www.zerohedge.com/signup">HERE</a>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0478711-e0d6-4baa-8f69-8bb8f788aeef_1792x1024.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/ckrAp5FJzk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">BE IN THE KNOW, BEFORE EVERYONE ELSE</a>" class="sizing-normal" height="832" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd0478711-e0d6-4baa-8f69-8bb8f788aeef_1792x1024.png" title="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/ckrAp5FJzk" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">BE IN THE KNOW, BEFORE EVERYONE ELSE</a>" width="1456" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><h3><strong><a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cz-VWcUt6V">Catch me if you can</a></strong></h3><p>Goldman tweaks up SPX price target to 5600 but the interesting reading is in the upside scenarios.</p><p>1. In a “catch-up” scenario, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 5900. The equal-weight index multiple would expand to 18x, matching its 2018 pre-pandemic high.</p><p>2. In a scenario of continued mega-cap exceptionalism, the S&P 500 index would end the year at 6300 (+16%). Assuming a 16x NTM P/E for the equal-weight index and a 45% P/E premium for the market-cap index, the aggregate S&P 500 would trade at a forward P/E of 23x, 16% above today (89th %ile of 6 month returns). </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbcbfc58f-3592-4e11-a554-0c97849d3875_459x217.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cz-VWcUt6V" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Catch me if you can </a>" class="sizing-normal" height="217" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbcbfc58f-3592-4e11-a554-0c97849d3875_459x217.png" title="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cz-VWcUt6V" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Catch me if you can </a>" width="459" /><div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Goldman</figcaption></figure></div><h3><strong><a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cES8tSWPmq">Not a bubble premium</a></strong></h3><p>Everyone is worried about that premium valuation vs equal weight - but Goldman shows that premium has been more extreme. Chart shows P/E premium of aggregate (SPX) vs. equal-weight (SPW) S&P 500 indices.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff01346b3-a65f-4b67-a9a5-f1968b61a98d_545x307.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cES8tSWPmq" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Not a bubble premium</a>" class="sizing-normal" height="307" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff01346b3-a65f-4b67-a9a5-f1968b61a98d_545x307.png" title="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cES8tSWPmq" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Not a bubble premium</a>" width="545" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Goldman</figcaption></figure></div><h3><strong><a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cKx3AgczBs">Narrow markets: Love it</a></strong></h3><p>BofA Quant team weighs in: "Mega-cap leadership alone is not cause for alarm. Mega-cap leadership years were followed by gains approximately 75% of the time."</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F380b5d30-8c0a-441e-8b4b-25adc45683f8_1491x589.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cKx3AgczBs" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Narrow markets: Love it </a>" class="sizing-normal" height="575" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F380b5d30-8c0a-441e-8b4b-25adc45683f8_1491x589.png" title="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cKx3AgczBs" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Narrow markets: Love it </a>" width="1456" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: BofA Quant</figcaption></figure></div><h3><strong>Mega cap tech floats the boat</strong></h3><p>Nothing new here, but always worth remembering what the DRIVER of stocks has been. Positive EPS revisions for mega cap tech vs. cuts to S&P 495 EPS.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F861f1372-c34f-4852-b2d2-93aa8308372d_524x288.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="Mega cap tech floats the boat" class="sizing-normal" height="288" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F861f1372-c34f-4852-b2d2-93aa8308372d_524x288.png" title="Mega cap tech floats the boat" width="524" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: FactSet</figcaption></figure></div><h3><strong>Better growth for years to come</strong></h3><p>Mega-cap tech EPS growth premium is expected to narrow - but still crush the rest of the market all the way to 2026.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27256bc0-13de-49fd-99f6-56adafbea044_513x292.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="Better growth for years to come " class="sizing-normal" height="292" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F27256bc0-13de-49fd-99f6-56adafbea044_513x292.png" title="Better growth for years to come " width="513" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: Goldman</figcaption></figure></div><h3><strong>Could the Fed really cut at all time highs?</strong></h3><p>"Of course, with major indices as buoyant as they’ve ever been, some investors may wonder whether the Fed could really cut with stocks at all-time highs? The answer is yes – they’ve done it 20 times since 1980 and the SPX was higher a year later all 20 times. Bulls will be putting their faith in history while bears might argue we’ll only see this magnitude of cuts if something is “broken” – it remains to be seen whether it’ll be the former or the latter…" (Nick Savone, MS)</p><h3><strong><a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cpiZSDjKYS">Party like it is 1995</a></strong></h3><p>"We think this year has a 1995 flavor to it. 1995 was last time we got a soft landing. The fed cut from 600bps to 525bps. S&P 500 made 77 ATHs in 1995 and that was just the appetizer w/ the epic run through...you guessed it...1999. YTD the S&P 500 already has 29 ATH closes (and the best start to an election year ever"</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feaba1d95-cd49-47ca-998d-bced67ae3e97_945x597.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cpiZSDjKYS" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Party like it is 1995</a>" class="sizing-normal" height="597" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Feaba1d95-cd49-47ca-998d-bced67ae3e97_945x597.png" title="<a href="https://themarketear.com/posts/cpiZSDjKYS" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Party like it is 1995</a>" width="945" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Source: John Flood, GS</figcaption></figure></div>