<div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input class="email-input" name="email" tabindex="-1" type="email" /><input class="button primary" type="submit" value="Subscribe" /><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p><em>Don't hesitate to send me any interesting research you come across.</em></p><p><em>You can also follow me on Twitter <strong><a href="https://twitter.com/StockCompil">@StockCompil</a></strong></em></p><p><strong>This article may be truncated by some email providers, so I suggest you read it directly on Substack for a better reading experience.</strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>White Brook Capital on Afya Limited $AFYA US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Afya Limited is a strong investment opportunity due to its stable operations and growth, despite recent stock price challenges, with significant potential for returns if the Brazilian currency stabilizes or improves.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12R7PQjG-P3ByePYRVubQIZTR8C8C6Kzk/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Afya Limited (AFYA) had a difficult 2024 and is flat so far this year. With a business wholly denominated in Brazilian Reais and a stock price in dollars, the stock suffered even while Afya's exceptionally stable business executed exceptionally well. Their medical seat fill rates continue to be 100% in the base medical education business, the number of seats continue to grow, and pricing is ahead of inflation, even while the number of applicants per seat is near all time highs. Their speciality education and B2P business units also continue to grow quickly and with improving margins. With ~10% revenue growth and 20%+ EPS/FCF growth, at ~10x next year’s earnings estimate, 7x EBITDA, and a double digit free cash flow yield, the stock is simply cheap. If the country’s currency is stable or improves versus the dollar, I continue to believe we will make very significant returns moving forward.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alphyn Capital Management on Amazon.com Inc $AMZN US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Amazon.com Inc is leveraging its robust balance sheet and commitment to customer satisfaction to drive sustainable cash flow growth through improved logistics, profitable international operations, and expanding high-margin revenue streams, particularly in advertising and AI.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19DkL-cGL7_nWds5-BUKLoCdvvxjwyi7Y/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Amazon continues to demonstrate how a massive balance sheet, combined with a relentless focus on customer satisfaction and first-principles thinking, can drive sustainable cash flow growth. Recent earnings highlight strong execution across multiple fronts. At its core, Amazon pursues what customers value most: faster, cheaper delivery. This quarter, 40 million users enjoyed free same-day shipping, reflecting management's sizable investments in regional logistics. These moves have reduced service costs, supported margin expansion, and set the stage for continued improvements with further robotics integration.</p><p>Amazon has now achieved margin gains in its international operations, making that segment profitable. By emphasizing improvements on the "intake" side of the supply chain and leveraging regional logistics, the company is laying the groundwork for more efficiencies ahead. Meanwhile, Amazon's advertising business saw $14.3 billion in revenue, up 19% year-over-year, a clear example of the company's success in forging new, high-margin revenue streams. Amazon Web Services and AI-related offerings also grew 19%, pushing quarterly revenues near $30 billion. Management spent $75 billion in capex this year, mainly for AI infrastructure, which will increase to $90 billion next year. While those numbers look daunting, I have confidence in the company's ability to balance aggressive growth with disciplined returns, given Amazon's decades-long track record of smart capital allocation. Amazon has a ruthless focus on "what works," for example, while shutting down its project (with JP Morgan and Berkshire) to change healthcare service proved too complex, it pivoted to high-velocity pharmacy deliveries, leveraging its logistics expertise.</p><p>Of course, AI is all the rage right now, and we will eventually find out how much of this is hype. For now, Amazon's AI initiatives are already producing multibillion-dollar revenues and growing at triple the rate of AWS when it was at a similar stage.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>White Falcon Capital Management on AMD $AMD US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>AMD is facing disappointment over potential shortfalls in AI chip revenues but remains poised to benefit from its other businesses and could still capture a small share of the expansive AI chip market.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CUMXGvi1IWKFbeqLDnQgNHzHIz4qJj9i/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>In AMD’s case, the market has been disappointed by the company’s potential shortfall in AI chip revenues, which were previously forecasted to reach $10 billion in 2025. However, the factors required to justify the investment when the stock is priced at $220 per share are vastly different from those needed when the stock is at $120 per share. Yes, AMD’s AI chips and associated software are not competitive with Nvidia but this is now known and in the valuation. We believe this hyperfocus on AI ignores AMD’s other businesses where they continue to take advantage of Intel’s missteps. Importantly, AMD retains the potential to capture a small share of the AI chip market, which, given the market’s massive size, could be highly impactful for the company.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greystone Capital Management on Bel Fuse $BELFB US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Bel Fuse is positioned for significant growth following a successful turnaround and a strategic acquisition of Enercon Technologies, which enhances its market presence and earnings potential.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yn_03ksv9k5IXlQVLmHRd-_Tqobc6_NQ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Bel Fuse was a strong contributor to performance this year, having exited a multi-year turnaround whereby CFO Farouq Tuweiq improved nearly every aspect of company operations, from pricing to cost structure, to capital allocation. Yet, the journey from here to there was made with little fanfare. In last year’s Q4 letter, I wrote that despite considerable evidence that earnings power has increased, Bel Fuse is still valued at a multiple below peers. My comment stands true today, but recent developments engender optimism that the gap will close. With limited organic top line growth prospects, I envisioned Bel Fuse eventually looking to M&A to bolster their product set, geographic presence and top line growth. What I didn’t expect was the home-run acquisition they made in September, acquiring 80% of Enercon Technologies, an Israeli based electronics manufacturer, for $320 million. The acquisition not only provides immediate top line growth but gives Bel exposure to some of the most attractive end markets in the industry, namely aerospace and defense, by broadening their manufacturing base and providing them with significant R&D resources for new products. The deal also solidifies management’s operating prowess, demonstrating their ability to create value. The purchase was made without issuing stock, and the multiple paid presents the opportunity for strong earnings accretion. Importantly, earn out targets as part of the deal call for Enercon to generate $43-50mm in EBITDA during 2025 and 2026. Based on my pro forma numbers for the deal, Bel could generate in excess of $140mm in EBITDA during 2025 and close to $150mm in 2026, against an enterprise value of less than $1.2B. Half of peer valuations is far too cheap for a quality business whose margins are now in line with peers and has sustainable top line growth for the first time in years. As Bel de-levers from the deal, management will resume share repurchases as well. Further upside remains.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>White Brook Capital on Box $BOX US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Box’s AI-driven solutions and reaccelerating growth position it well for 2025 and beyond.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12R7PQjG-P3ByePYRVubQIZTR8C8C6Kzk/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Box had a solid 2024 and overcame a significant headwind from the depreciating Japanese yen that affected a third of the business. On a reported basis the company’s financial metrics appear flat, but controlling for currency, net revenue retention rate, billings, and remaining performance obligations all began to reaccelerate by the end of the calendar year. These are signs of inflecting revenue growth in 2025 and beyond. Moving forward, AI should enable the Company to do more for its customers and allow them to quickly develop AI agents. From 2016-2021, the market rewarded SaaS applications that helped their customers manipulate and use data, but didn’t much care how and where that data was stored. Artificial intelligence cares deeply about the silos data may be in, and doesn’t like it. Box provides a highly accessible data layer for the data humans generate and use, allows a wide variety of AIs to access that data, automates document creation, and provides a tool to develop workflows around it all. I believe their AI agnostic vision will lead to further churn decline and accelerate customer acquisition leading to stock outperformance.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greenlight Capital on Capri Holdings $CPRI US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>CPRI is a company we increased our position in despite a court blocking its merger, as we believe its interim poor results reflect management distraction and that there is strategic potential for recovery with its Versace and Jimmy Choo brands.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11gyPyvolscLnp7XSgeV2uXDpK72io_oO/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>We increased our position in CPRI. When the court blocked CPRI’s sale, we suffered a moderate loss. Fortunately, the position was not large. While we expected the merger would go through and we were surprised by and disagreed with the court’s ruling, we recognized the downside risk if the deal broke. When we get an adverse result on an event like this, our instinct is to declare that our thesis has broken and take our loss. After evaluating this situation, however, we came to the opposite conclusion and added to our holdings. During the period when the merger was pending, CPRI’s results were simply awful. Before the proposed deal was announced, CPRI shares traded at about $35, and when the deal broke, the market took the lousy results into account and the shares fell to about $20. Our current thesis is that the interim results were so awful that they likely reflected management distraction, if not neglect. We also believe there is strategic potential for the company’s Versace and Jimmy Choo brands. It should not be difficult for management to re-engage and achieve at least somewhat less awful results. If that happens the shares should stage a recovery.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alluvial Capital on CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. $CBL US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. is a strategically positioned commercial real estate operator with strong cash flow and manageable debt, poised for recovery and growth following its restructuring post-bankruptcy.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nrUvnfmzM5-a5G2zoeEMqPq0q51lYgQb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Our other notable new holding is CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. I consider CBL another expression of our “long-term commercial property recovery” theme, where we seek to buy fundamentally sound real estate that will benefit from gradually improving sentiment. CBL is an operator of traditional malls, outlet malls, open air shopping centers, and lifestyle properties. CBL entered bankruptcy during the COVID crisis, shedding debt and reemerging in 2021. There’s no question that the mall business is not what it used to be, but CBL has done an admirable job in reducing leverage, investing in its best properties, and returning capital to shareholders. Today, CBL owns a portfolio of 87 properties and manages 4 others for third parties. The portfolio ranges in quality from “Class A-ish” malls doing $500+ of annual sales per square foot, to challenged properties in tertiary markets. CBL’s value is concentrated in its best properties, but the lower-quality properties still produce cash and the company is actively marketing some for sale.</p><p>I value CBL shares at $40-45. At $28, CBL trades at an attractive discount to fair value, but I am also attracted by the low downside risk. The company has almost $9 per share in excess cash and owns a collection of properties totally unencumbered by debt. These properties produced $66 million in 2023 cash flow. At 7x cash flow, these properties are worth another $15 per CBL share. Together with the cash, that’s value of $24 per share before considering any of the debt-encumbered properties. And there is plenty of value there, too. Some of CBL’s properties are owned by a holding company that carries a term loan of $730 million. As long as these properties are worth more than 5.5x cash flow, CBL’s equity in the holding company has value. CBL also has numerous properties with non-recourse property debt. Some of these properties are not currently cash-flowing for CBL because their cash flow is insufficient to satisfy their debt service ratios. These represent pure optionality for CBL. Either things don’t improve and CBL hands the keys to the lenders, the lenders agree to restructure the debt and the properties become cash-flowing again, or property performance improves and the debt service issue is resolved. There’s no way these properties can be actual liabilities for CBL, and plenty of ways they can have value again. CBL’s best properties are mainly held through joint ventures with other operators. The company is working to consolidate some of these, and just announced the purchase of its JV partners’ interests in three malls in Nashville, Kansas City, and St. Louis.</p><p>Like our other commercial property holdings, CBL & Associates Properties has its fair share of challenges. But there are plenty of encouraging signs. CBL’s net operating income was steady from 2023 to 2024, and occupancy ticked higher in the third quarter. The company’s debt burden is very manageable and shrinking monthly from scheduled amortization and property sales. It’s unlikely that investors will wake up tomorrow, decide malls are the future of commerce, and bid CBL shares to $80 or $100. But I do think the combination of strong cash flow, continued debt reduction, strategic reinvestment in CBL’s best assets, and healthy distributions and share repurchases will drive shares higher this year and next. Looking back over the years, some of our best investments have been in companies that were deeply stigmatized and out-of-favor, but had valuable tangible assets, healthy cash flow, and management capable of maximizing the value of each. CBL certainly qualifies.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greenlight Capital on Centene Corporation $CNC US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>CNC is trading at a historically low valuation despite its status as the largest Managed Medicaid company, with potential for significant repricing in its core Medicaid business over the next two years amidst current concerns.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11gyPyvolscLnp7XSgeV2uXDpK72io_oO/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>CNC is the largest Managed Medicaid company. Shares are trading at a historically low valuation despite the company currently significantly underearning in its Medicaid book. This valuation disconnect is driven by concerns about the impact of a likely non-extension of enhanced ACA exchange subsidies beyond 2025 on CNC’s exchange business, as well as potential attempts by the incoming Trump administration to make adverse changes to the Medicaid program. We think a repricing in the core Medicaid business over the next two years could more than offset some of these potential headwinds, which are not guaranteed to materialize. We acquired our shares at an average price of $60.54, or about 9x current earnings. Management and the board are taking advantage of the situation by sharply ramping up share repurchases, as well as making large personal stock purchases. CNC ended the year at $60.58.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Night Watch on Charles Schwab $SCHW US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Charles Schwab is experiencing a turnaround with leadership stability, operational improvements, and growth opportunities, positioning it for long-term success.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zKO75wEfYPILlkHGkfOqRtGZm6-68MW_/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Schwab is rebounding after a challenging period, supported by leadership stability, operational improvements, and client retention gains. Key highlights include leadership transition with incoming CEO Rick Wurster continuing the strategic vision, an encouraging recovery with net new assets growing over the last two quarters, and core strengths showing organic growth of 5%-7% annually driven by increased advisory activity. Schwab's turnaround is gaining traction, indicating its ability to navigate macroeconomic challenges and focus on higher-margin products, as it positions itself for long-term success.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greenlight Capital on CNH Industrial $CNHI US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>CNH is a leading agricultural equipment manufacturer poised for a recovery despite current downturns, with an estimated bottom earnings of $1 per share, an attractive entry price, and ongoing shareholder returns through dividends and stock buybacks.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11gyPyvolscLnp7XSgeV2uXDpK72io_oO/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>CNH is a leading manufacturer of tractors, combines and other agricultural equipment. The farm equipment industry is going through a downcycle led by weak commodity prices and we estimate CNH will ultimately generate trough earnings close to $1 per share. We acquired our position at an average price of $10.53 per share, or less than 11x these expected bottom-of-cycle results. Investor sentiment is extremely weak on the view that the bottom is several years away.</p><p>We are optimistic that this current downturn will be shorter and shallower than the prior one experienced about a decade ago. First, the industry experienced strikes and supply chain issues over the last few years, tempering peak sales and inventory levels. Second, CNH and its peers took the corrective action of underproducing to end demand and destocking inventories earlier and more aggressively this time around. As a result, we expect CNH’s sales to return to growth sometime in the coming year simply by producing to end demand, even if farmer spending remains weak. In the meantime, CNH pays a 3% dividend and management has committed to returning the remaining free cash flow through buybacks. We estimate that management will be able to repurchase 5-6% of its stock annually. CNH ended 2024 at $11.33.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Symmetry on CTT $CTT PL</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>CTT is poised for significant growth, with a strong transition from mail delivery to a leading Express & Parcel operator in Iberia, underpinned by favorable market conditions, high barriers to entry, recent transformative M&A deals, and a projected 250% upside in stock value within three years.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DlZE9hxZpDsx_4BBiDFnhRu6TewuwsfF/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Summary:<br />- From a mail operator to the leading Express & Parcel operator in Iberia in less than 5 years<br />- Strong secular growth tailwinds support double digit growth going forward<br />- High barriers to entry and scale benefits supporting strong unit economics<br />- Strong shareholder base, board of directors and management<br />- History of good capital allocation and shareholder return focus<br />- Hidden assets and several value unlocking options near term<br />- Trading at 6x forward earnings<br />- Recent strategic transactions to significantly increase value<br />- Fair value in 3 years of 20 EUR per share<br />- We see 250 % upside for the stock within the next 3 years<br /><br />A few years ago, we started doing research on an obscure small Portuguese mail operator called CTT. At that point most of the profits the company generated was from mail delivery – a slowly dying business. While the mail business did not attract us – the strategic direction a new board and management was transitioning the company into did– combined with a strong brand and a lot of hidden balance sheets assets, it was enough for us to dig deeper. Over the last 2 years we slowly build a position in the company – last year we managed to spend a few days with most of the senior management team in Lisbon watching their facilities and stores and got to know the business even better. We kept increasing the position post the Q3 report as we thought the market failed to recognize the inflection happening in Q4 and into 2025. Then in December 2024 – 2 days in a row – CTT announced 2 transformative M&A deals that we think are truly transformative for the future of the company. We estimate these 2 deals alone improved the intrinsic value by +50 % imminently with much more to come 2-3 years out as synergies are realized. With the stock only up slightly on the announcement of these deals – we decided to increase our position significantly. CTT today is one of our largest positions – in this report we hope we can share why!</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Fiduciary Management on Donaldson Company Inc. $DCI US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Donaldson Company Inc. is a leading global filtration products manufacturer with a strong market position, solid financials, and attractive valuation, poised for growth despite cyclical challenges.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11XiUc1NQKKfs48qLGG5oObS5yPcZ5U-i/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Donaldson Company Inc. (DCI) – FMI Common Stock Fund<br /><br />Donaldson is a leading global designer and manufacturer of air and liquid filtration products with broad industrial and geographic exposure. The company’s technology-led filtration solutions increase efficiency and lower maintenance costs for customers. We like the durability of the franchise (founded in 1915), mission-critical yet low-cost nature of the products, resilient, growing, and higher-margin aftermarket exposure, attractive return profile, conservative and disciplined management, and solid balance sheet. The business serves many cyclical end markets (construction, mining, agriculture, trucking, manufacturing/production, etc.), several of which are seeing signs of softness, though we expect it to grow above its end markets with less volatility through the cycle. The valuation is well below the market, which we view as attractive given its above-average business quality.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Fiduciary Management on Edenred SE $EDEN FP</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Edenred SE is a leading digital payment solutions platform, particularly known for its meal vouchers business, which generates strong returns despite current regulatory challenges, and is expected to achieve significant earnings growth.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11XiUc1NQKKfs48qLGG5oObS5yPcZ5U-i/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Edenred is a leading digital platform for specific-purpose payment solutions. Edenred is most well-known for its meal vouchers business. In this business, employers issue meal vouchers to employees that can be redeemed at restaurants. Employers and employees receive a tax benefit, and restaurants benefit from increased traffic. Edenred receives a fee for managing the network, and also earns interest on the float as employers pay for the meal vouchers up-front. Edenred is the global leader in this business and generates attractive returns. Barriers to entry are high due to network effects. Edenred differentiates on the size of its network, technology capabilities, and trusted brand. The stock has been weak due to the pending implementation of a meal voucher fee cap in Italy and meal voucher regulatory uncertainty in France and Brazil. We expect Edenred to have strong earnings growth for the foreseeable future despite the regulatory pressures. Growth should be driven by increased penetration in the large meal vouchers market and in the other business lines. The stock trades at a low-teens multiple of earnings, which we believe significantly undervalues the business quality and growth prospects.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Kingdom Capital on Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) $GLXZ US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) is expected to provide a 33% IRR from its acquisition by Evolution, with minimal counter-party risk and a potential break payment.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y0p9Pz9s3rmcmcNooteUBsa55XGMzTqb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Also, among our key 2024 contributors, we are waiting for Galaxy Gaming (GLXZ) to finalize its sale to Evolution. Shareholders voted to approve the deal in November. Though illiquid, the GLXZ stock trades at $2.75/share versus the $3.20 sale price. Assuming a mid-year close, this yields about a 33% IRR, and we plan to hold the shares rather than selling before the deal closes. We are glad that Evolution carries almost 10x the cash needed to close the acquisition, introducing little counter-party risk. In the event the deal breaks, GLXZ will be trading below 10x EBITDA and receive a sizable $5m break payment.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Massif Capital on Harbour Energy $HBR LN</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Harbour Energy is well-positioned for growth and value generation through strategic acquisitions and strong cash flow, particularly following its recent expansion into diverse international markets and increased natural gas exposure.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/13lp22PTwDMf72yhG0wvcUoOHOoOtsuUJ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Harbour Energy, the largest European Independent E&P, has undergone significant transformation through strategic mergers and acquisitions since inception. The company’s growth strategy, led by CEO Linda Cook, has focused on acquiring and optimizing assets in mature basins, particularly in the North Sea. This approach has allowed Harbour to build a robust portfolio with strong cash flow generation and a solid balance sheet upon which it can grow internationally.<br /><br />The recent acquisition of Wintershall Dea’s non-Russian assets for $11.2 billion marks a pivotal moment for Harbour Energy (HBR). This merger diversifies the company’s geographic footprint, reducing its reliance on UK assets and expanding its presence in Norway, Argentina, and other regions. The deal also increases HBR’s natural gas exposure, positioning it well for the energy transition.<br /><br />HBR’s financial outlook is promising. Our analysis projects free cash flow yields of 15-20% annually between 2025 and 2030 based on conservative oil and gas price assumptions. The company’s new investment-grade credit rating (BBB-/Baa2) reflects improved financial stability, with net debt-to-EBITDA ratios expected to remain near 1.0x through 2030.<br /><br />The broader market context for European independent E&Ps presents both challenges and opportunities. While European independents trade at discounts to more prominent peers, HBR stands out due to its new scale, diversification, and financial strength. The company’s valuation appears attractive across various commodity price scenarios, suggesting a strong likelihood of meaningful appreciation. Currently, we value HBR at 548 Gbp per share (a 98% return), with a breadth of scenarios that value the firm at the low end at the current share price, and a peak valuation of 893.75 Gbp (221.9%). Further upside exists should the firm follow through on rumors it will list in the US, where it could expect investors to place a higher valuation on its operating results.<br /><br />Looking ahead, HBR is well-positioned to navigate the evolving energy landscape. The company’s focus on cost reduction, history of thoughtful capital allocation, and exposure to global oil and European gas markets provide resilience against market volatility and a broad set of economic scenarios. With its expanded portfolio and robust free cash flow profile, HBR is poised to deliver consistent value to shareholders.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greystone Capital Management on Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) $IVFH US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is poised for sustained profitability and growth in specialty food distribution following strategic asset divestitures, cost reductions, and new retail partnerships, culminating in ambitious revenue and EBITDA margin goals.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yn_03ksv9k5IXlQVLmHRd-_Tqobc6_NQ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Innovative Food Holdings (IVFH) is our specialty food distribution business. Few businesses in our portfolio have moved from here to there in such a short period of time. This includes a name change to Harvest Group Holdings, which will be consummated during early 2025. I won’t rehash all the strategic moves from the past two years, but some include divesting non-core assets, reducing the cost structure, receiving their largest ever purchase order in partnership with a large retail chain, and acquiring two distribution businesses. By consistently hitting singles and doubles, IVFH has drastically improved their future earnings power, going from a loss-making company to one that will start to show sustained profitability when they report their Q4 results.<br /><br />At the heart of the company sits a strong core business, where IVFH operates a specialty food distribution marketplace to connect vendors to a nationwide group of chef customers. This business has always been cashflow generative and possessed strong growth prospects but will now be complemented by inorganic growth and additional retail partnerships. Previously encumbered by a money-losing e-commerce segment which is now divested, core food distribution returned to growth during Q3 of 2024, indicating progress is being made.<br /><br />The investment thesis for IVFH since our initial purchase has evolved, while the business has been de-risked. Initially, common sense cost reductions and a focus on core food distribution would lead to an immediate increase in earnings power. That alone would have been enough to do well here. Today, there are several organic and inorganic growth avenues outside of the core business that could result in high returns for years to come. Management’s medium-term goals of $100mm in revenues and 10% EBITDA margins are no longer farfetched. A single partnership with a top ten retailer to supply gourmet cheese should, on its own, add double digit revenue growth to the top line with a nice EBITDA contribution.<br /><br />IVFH recently raised $3.0mm via a rights offering in which insiders and the Board were happy to up their stakes (at recent highs for the stock price, I might add). This is one of the many advantages of having a Board of Directors who think like owners, because they are. Our shares have more than doubled since our initial purchases, but upside remains. The future is bright for IVFH and I’m looking forward to seeing what management can accomplish over time.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Laughing Water Capital on Lifecore Biomedical $LFCR US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) is experiencing a turnaround under new management, with plans for significant revenue growth and potential change of control by 2028, suggesting more than 100% upside in the future.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12PKzs3rJ0AaUGBpRchwXHyfT6ZYmINYr/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Lifecore Biomedical (LFCR) – Lifecore, our CDMO focused on injectable drugs, had a busy year as a new – and much improved – management team began to put their stamp on the business. Notably, we participated in an equity raise which helped remove balance sheet concerns, and the Company hosted an investor day that provided more detail on the plan to reach $300M of annual revenue by filling spare capacity. Of particular interest is a step up in contractually guaranteed revenue by 2027. The Company has also been building out their sales force, and all of this additional revenue will come with tremendous operating leverage on the Company’s fixed costs. This is great news looking forward, but rewind to what the old management team said two years ago, and it seems as if the previous management team either misled investors or had a very poor handle on their business, which is of course frustrating.</p><p>Lifecore is now the last remaining small public CDMO, and in their most recent 10Q they indicated that internally they believe there is an 80% chance there will be a change of control event by 2028. Now that a new management team has arrived and is cleaning up – and growing - the business, I personally think the odds are higher. Examining comparable transaction multiples suggests that Lifecore could have more than 100% upside today, and significantly more upside in the future as management executes vs. the plan. Presumably management shares this view as they have recently bought shares in the open market.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greystone Capital on Limbach Holdings $LMB US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Limbach’s strong acquisitions, margin expansion, and consistent growth make it a compelling investment with upside potential.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yn_03ksv9k5IXlQVLmHRd-_Tqobc6_NQ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Limbach was the largest contributor to performance during 2024, for good reason. Their journey from here to there has been executed flawlessly (which, as an investor, I have the luxury of proclaiming), with earnings power increasing at a tremendous rate during the past 24 months. On the back of low single digit revenue growth aided by their ODR segment growing 20%, gross margins have expanded nearly 1000bps, EBITDA margins have expanded 500bps, and adjusted EBITDA has more than doubled. This has translated nicely into free cash flow, which Limbach has used to acquire additional service businesses for 4-5x EBITDA. During 2024, Limbach invested $38mm to purchase two businesses, Kent Island Mechanical and Consolidated Mechanical, two building systems solutions companies with long histories. The average multiple paid was 3.75x and when combined, should add between $8-10mm EBITDA beginning in 2025. Additionally, now that Limbach has spent over $50mm on acquisitions during the past two years, they should see increased deal flow with the opportunity to consistently acquire 3-4 businesses per year, or between $15-20mm in EBITDA. There will also be more opportunities for organic growth and margin improvement as Limbach continues its mix shift toward increased ODR work and develops their brand. With time, improved offerings, and growing their national identity, there could come a time when ‘nobody gets fired for hiring Limbach’. Working with building owners on capital budgeting plans as opposed to just being a part of the operating expense budget for service means Limbach can become even more entrenched with their customer base, adding some pricing power to the mix. Limbach was the rare situation last year whereby I kept updating my estimates…to the upside. Although I don’t expect the same beat-and-raise cadence or stock price performance during 2025, there is plenty to be optimistic about. We have done very well since our initial purchases, but I’ve made too many mistakes selling good businesses run by strong management teams earlier than I should. We will continue to own Limbach until the thesis changes.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Kingdom Capital on Magnera Corporation (MAGN) $MAGN US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Magnera Corporation is an expected turnaround investment with a potential 120% upside over three years, driven by debt management and recovery in EBITDA.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Y0p9Pz9s3rmcmcNooteUBsa55XGMzTqb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Our most significant addition in Q4 was Magnera Corporation (MAGN). The product of a merger between Glatfelter and Berry’s HH&S businesses, Magnera began trading independently in November. The combined entity should file their 10-K shortly and report their Q1 in February, after which we expect the improvement in volumes for their non-wovens will become apparent. This is not an exciting business, producing products like wipes, diapers, etc. Magnera was spun with a significant amount of debt, but we interpret their upsized $800m notes offering as a sign that the business is turning. The debt is cheap, termed out, and backed by significant assets. We expect Management to focus on deleveraging quickly. As a bonus, some of their business lines were impacted by cheap imports in recent years, and I expect Magnera could be a beneficiary of a tougher tariff regime. At a high level, here is our investment framework:</p><p>- Magnera should have about $1.8B of net debt after the spin, and 36m outstanding shares, with about $400m of EBITDA. Shares currently trade at $18.</p><p>- I think Magnera can generate >$100m of annual FCF for the next three years, while growing EBITDA to $475–500m via synergies and volume recovery. These businesses have averaged over $500m of annual EBITDA in the past decade, suggesting this normalization is not overly aggressive.</p><p>- At their current 6x EBITDA multiple, that would imply the business trades for $40/share within three years (~120% upside/30% IRR).</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alluvial Capital on McBride $MCB LN</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>McBride is a British private label soaps and detergents manufacturer that has improved its margins and reduced debt, making its shares a bargain below GBP 200 despite economic challenges.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nrUvnfmzM5-a5G2zoeEMqPq0q51lYgQb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>McBride is our British private label soaps and detergents manufacturer that got itself in hot water thanks to surging COVID-era input costs. We invested as it was becoming clear that McBride had turned the corner, getting its margins under control thanks to efficiency initiatives and amended customer contracts, and rapidly reducing debt. Shares rallied after our purchase, but slumped all summer as a procession of downbeat economic news from across the Atlantic and continued disinterest in the UK stock market took their toll. The slide was nothing short of perplexing to me, as McBride is about as defensive as a company can be. A moribund British and Continental European economy is good for McBride as it results in stressed consumers trading down from name brand cleaning products to private labels. We added to our position all summer and fall, building our Alluvial Fund holdings to 3 million McBride shares. McBride’s January 17 first half trading update was, as the Brits might say, “cracking.” The company revealed strong volume growth and operating income up 8% year-over-year. Net debt fell to a new low of 117.6 million, and the company indicated it would resume paying dividends next fiscal year. Shares promptly rallied from GBP 101 to GBP 117. Even after the move, McBride trades at only 3.6x EBITDA and just 5 times forward earnings. There is plenty of room for McBride shares to climb before reaching fair value. McBride shares are a bargain anywhere below GBP 200.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Night Watch on Morgan Stanley $MS US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Morgan Stanley is a strong investment opportunity due to its diversified business model, impressive revenue growth in investment banking and wealth management, and a compelling valuation.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zKO75wEfYPILlkHGkfOqRtGZm6-68MW_/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Morgan Stanley (MS) has a diversified business model that supports robust growth across investment banking, wealth management, and investment management. Key highlights include investment banking momentum with revenues rising 55% YoY in Q3 to $1.5 billion, driven by market recovery and large public offerings. The wealth management segment shows leadership with record revenues of $7.2 billion and total fee-based assets reaching $2.3 trillion. Additionally, cutting-edge partnerships leveraging AI enhance advisor productivity and deepen client relationships. Morgan Stanley offers a compelling mix of growth and resilience, with strong revenue diversification and a dominant wealth management franchise. Its forward P/E of ~14x suggests attractive valuation upside.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greystone Capital Management on Natural Resource Partners (NRP) $NRP US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Natural Resource Partners is a resilient coal royalty business with strong free cash flow, effective management, and an attractive valuation, benefiting from a unique low-cost structure that enables consistent profitability regardless of market fluctuations.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yn_03ksv9k5IXlQVLmHRd-_Tqobc6_NQ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>During Q2 last year, we started accumulating units of Natural Resource Partners, a coal royalty business with significant durability, ample free cash flow, excellent management, and a cheap valuation. Both the business and investment thesis are simple, resting on two pillars for value creation: debt paydown and increased distributions.</p><p>NRP is a royalty business. The company owns mineral rights on 13 million acres of land in various parts of the US, with coal as the underlying commodity on a large portion of this land. NRP leases its properties to coal miners, including some of the largest and lowest cost producers in the world, for a royalty based on a percentage of the price per ton of coal mined. NRP’s leases range from 5-40 years in length and have built in minimum payments owed, regardless of volume mined. NRP also owns a 49% stake in a large soda ash business called Siescam Wyoming, discussed more below.</p><p>Lessees mine two types of coal from NRP’s properties, Thermal coal and Metallurgical or ‘Met’ coal. Thermal coal is a key commodity used for electricity generation, and metallurgical coal is a key commodity used in the production of steel. Currently, NRP revenues are split 70/30 between metallurgical coal and thermal coal, with met coal being the more favorably priced commodity, with a much longer runway for royalty revenue.</p><p>In the coal industry, as with most commodity markets, producers (i.e. miners) rarely possess wide moats or differentiation. The price of coal is set by the market, and fluctuates depending on many factors, positively or negatively impacting producer’s revenues and cash flow. As a result, the lower each company sits on the cost curve, the more effectively they can compete (greater profits, lower breakeven point). I have no interest in the producer business model, where nasty operating leverage can wipe out near-term profitability, something past boom and bust cycles have demonstrated.</p><p>The royalty business model, however, one of the best business models in the world, provides NRP with unique advantages, including a favorable cost structure leading to durability and resilience, as demonstrated during the past two decades. NRP’s lessees shoulder all the expense of mining the coal, maintaining the properties, and paying the workforce, so NRP benefits from higher volumes and revenues when coal prices are high, and bears none of the operating expense burden when prices are low. This low-cost structure, with no ongoing opex (excluding some corporate costs) or capital investments, a staple of royalty businesses, allows NRP to generate 90% free cash flow margins. A quick detour through the past two decades of operating results would reveal zero years of negative free cash flow through a multitude of coal price environments. With 30-40 years of reserves in the ground, I’m envisioning a long runway for continued cash flow generation.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties $N/A</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Alluvial Fund's largest holding is Net Lease Office Properties, which is effectively liquidating its assets and significantly reducing debt, positioning itself for potential shareholder distributions despite challenges in the office market.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nrUvnfmzM5-a5G2zoeEMqPq0q51lYgQb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Alluvial Fund’s largest holding remains Net Lease Office Properties, an ongoing liquidation story. The speed with which Net Lease has sold off properties and paid down its debt is impressive. Just six months ago, the company owned 47 properties and carried recourse debt of $215 million. Today, Net Lease is down to 39 properties and $61 million in recourse debt. I expect the company’s remaining recourse debt to be extinguished this quarter or next, allowing the company to begin distributing the proceeds of its property sales to shareholders. Net Lease shares have performed very well since we first started buying them one year ago, but their price remains deeply discounted against any reasonable estimate of asset value. The headwinds facing the office market have scarcely abated, and interest rates are being stubbornly slow to decline, but if Net Lease can continue selling its properties at 8-12% cash flow yields, eventually there will be nothing left to sell and shareholders will have received far more than the current trading price in distributions.</p><p>Lest anyone think I am being too sanguine about Net Lease’s prospects, I do make allowance for the fact that some lower quality or “quirkier” properties may prove difficult to sell or fetch disappointing prices. The company’s largest remaining property, a 1 million square foot Houston building leased to KBR, might be one such property. It’s an older building in an office market with high vacancy. Hard to imagine the list of interested buyers is currently very long or feeling very spendy. On the plus side, KBR’s lease runs for another 5.4 years, and Net Lease will receive another $115 million in rents. Discounted at 10%, that’s a present value of $86 million. It’s very possible that the Houston office market will improve by 2030 and that the building will have significant terminal value. But even if the property is totally worthless in five years (unlikely), the present value of remaining contractual rent payments alone is $80 per square foot. If I repeat this process with Net Lease’s other “difficult” properties, applying punitive outcomes, I still get to a value per Net Lease Office Properties share in the high $30s. My “realistic scenario” valuation remains $45 per share.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Laughing Water Capital on Nextnav $NN US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Nextnav is likely undervalued at ~$40 per share, as its nationwide low band spectrum could command a premium over recent Verizon transactions, and despite opposition to its FCC petition, it is expected to negotiate from a position of strength.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12PKzs3rJ0AaUGBpRchwXHyfT6ZYmINYr/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>The most recent relevant valuation marker for what this spectrum could be worth comes in the form of Verizon (VZ) paying $1.44 MHz / Pop for low band spectrum that is rural and regional. Nextnav’s low band spectrum is nationwide, and could thus deserve a significant premium to this price. Even without a premium, based on this transaction, Nextnav’s spectrum would be worth ~$40 per share, assuming the FCC grants Nextnav’s petition in its current form, and there are no windfall penalties.<br /><br />I believe the disconnect between this value and Nextnav’s shares is because the market views Nextnav’s FCC petition as being akin to a pharmaceutical company trying to develop a new drug; either it will be approved, or it will be rejected. That sort of binary view is unattractive to most investors.<br /><br />However, in my view this analogy is incorrect.<br /><br />In an FDA trial, a pharmaceutical company cannot move the goalposts mid-trial. Either the drug does what they say it does, or it does not. If it does not, they must go back to the beginning. Contrary to this, an FCC petition can be effectively negotiated along the way; there is room for compromise. To be clear, Nextnav’s petition has been met with significant pushback from several parties, perhaps most notably transit and toll authorities (licensed users) that operate in specific geographic areas, and those that rely on RFID technology (unlicensed users) that are unbounded by geography. From my (admittedly biased) reading of the objector’s filings, it seems as if they tend to focus on hyperbolic worst case scenarios of what could happen if the 900 MHz is modified as Nextnav has requested. From my similarly biased reading of Nextnav’s response filings, it seems as if Nextnav is able to counter any objection with facts, data, and offers to have engineer to engineer conversations and tests in order to find a middle ground.<br /><br />Regardless of my readings of the filings though, I think there should be room for common sense. I can see how operating 5G spectrum for cell phones in the same band that EZ-Pass uses at the George Washington Bridge could lead to conflict in the channel, but surely this conflict will not affect people who are hoping to make a phone call in Sheboygan. At the end of the day, I think the most likely result here will be some combination of these objectors extracting some economics from Nextnav in order to drop their objections and/or Nextnav making concessions along power or geography. If Nextnav and other interested parties cannot come to an agreement on their own, then the FCC will effectively act as referee, and tell all interested parties what they are getting, whether they like it or not.<br /><br />I would note that there is a long history of significant opposition to FCC petitions being overcome in order to free up additional spectrum. In fact, in a recent speech, Brendan Carr, the incoming Chairman of the FCC, gave several examples of this including C Band, 5.9 GHz, L Band, and 6 GHz. Carr also authored the FCC section of “Project 2025,” where “Promoting National Security” and “Unleashing Economic Prosperity” were two of the four stated policy priorities.<br /><br />My read of this document suggests that Carr sees China as a threat, and I would note that China already has terrestrial GPS capabilities. I would bet that Carr feels strongly that the U.S. needs a terrestrial GPS system as well, lest we be greatly disadvantaged in any potential conflict with China. Further, he explicitly states that America needs more spectrum for 5G, and that the spectrum pipeline needs to be refilled, while also noting that rural areas should be a focus. Low band spectrum, such as that owned by Nextnav, is particularly well suited to cover rural areas as mid band or high band spectrum would need 3-7x more towers than low band.<br /><br />Additionally, FCC Commissioner Nathan Simington recently gave a speech where he declared “GPS vulnerabilities ... are becoming one of America’s biggest security issues.” If Nextnav and other interested parties cannot reach an agreement, I thus believe that 2 out of the 5 “referees” that would step in to solve this problem would be highly likely to side with Nextnav. With the new administration, a 3rd Republican will be appointed to the FCC, and this yet-to-be-named commissioner is likely to be positively biased toward working with Nextnav as well. This is based on the fact that it was President Trump who first got the ball rolling on strengthening the U.S. Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT) capabilities through a 2020 Executive Order, and Nextnav seems to have the only viable solution to implement a terrestrial next gen GPS system with no cost to taxpayers.</p><p>It thus seems to me that while there is significant opposition to Nextnav’s petition, Nextnav will be negotiating with the opposing parties from a position of strength. This should fuel considerable additional upside to our investment.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Blackrock on Nightview Capital $BLK US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>BlackRock’s scale, innovation, and focus on AI and sustainability position it for steady long-term growth.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zKO75wEfYPILlkHGkfOqRtGZm6-68MW_/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>BlackRock leverages its scale and innovation to lead in asset management, ETFs, and financial technology. The company has a massive scale with AUM exceeding $10.6 trillion supporting diverse revenue streams. Investments in AI, data centers, and energy transitions unlock trillions in opportunities. Financial strength is evident as operating income grew 12% YoY, with margin expansion of 160 basis points. BlackRock’s consistent innovation, strategic partnerships, and shareholder returns position the firm as a leader in financial evolution, making it an attractive long-term investment.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greenlight Capital on Peloton Interactive, Inc. $PTON US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Peloton is a company with a loyal customer base that, despite a 98% stock decline from its peak, has potential for significant upside through cost-cutting and improved profitability.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11gyPyvolscLnp7XSgeV2uXDpK72io_oO/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>We presented our PTON thesis at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in October and previously sent you copies of the presentation. Yes, David rode for 20 minutes while presenting the thesis. PTON was a popular stock during the COVID era as demand for at-home fitness products and services skyrocketed. During this time, the company invested heavily for growth without any regard for profitability or expense management. After multiple missteps and subsequent management changes, the stock fell 98% from its peak price in early 2021. Throughout this time, PTON has maintained a loyal and engaged customer base through its subscription-based business model. Recently, the company has committed itself to dramatically cutting costs. Should PTON be successful in right-sizing its cost structure, we expect significant EBITDA generation, and when applying a peer multiple to those profits, we believe the stock has significant upside. We established our position at an average price of $4.07 per share. PTON ended the year at $8.70.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>White Falcon Capital Management on Perrigo $PRGO US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Perrigo is poised for significant growth with the launch of Opill, the first FDA-approved over-the-counter contraception, expected to contribute positively to earnings by 2025-26, potentially doubling its share price to $50.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CUMXGvi1IWKFbeqLDnQgNHzHIz4qJj9i/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Perrigo launched Opill which is a progestin-only oral contraceptive pill, which, unlike combination birth control pills, contains only progestin and is suitable for a broader range of women. In 2023, Opill received FDA approval as the first over-the-counter (OTC) birth control pill in the United States. This makes contraception more accessible without a prescription. Opill enhances access to birth control for many women, including young women, those without health insurance, and individuals in areas with limited healthcare services. Launching an OTC birth control pill requires significant educational and marketing efforts to ensure proper use and integration into broader healthcare conversations. Due to this, Opill is currently dilutive to earnings but management expects it to start contributing to earnings in 2025-26. We believe that there is a significant market opportunity for a pill like Opill and this should contribute meaningfully to Perrigo’s results in the near future.</p><p><strong>Going forward, one can expect:<br /></strong></p><ul><li><p>Organic net sales growth in the low to mid-single digits</p></li><li><p>Earnings will grow faster due to operating leverage and cost-cutting programs. In addition, the full force of infant formula and some contribution from Opill means that EPS can hit $3.25-3.50 in 2025/26.</p></li><li><p>After that, a HSD percentage growth in adjusted operating income and a higher low-teens growth in EPS due to debt paydown and lower interest expense</p></li></ul><p>Due to all this, we believe that Perrigo should be trading at a 14-15x multiple of this $3.50 in earnings in 2025/2026 leading to a projected share price of $50 which is close to a double compared to the share price today.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Fiduciary Management on Progressive Corp. $PGR US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Progressive Corp. is a leading auto insurer in the U.S. with strong competitive advantages and promising growth potential as the industry recovers after the pandemic.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11XiUc1NQKKfs48qLGG5oObS5yPcZ5U-i/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Progressive is the second largest auto insurer in the U.S. The company is successfully moving up-market through improved bundling with home insurance. They are also a leading player in commercial auto and are increasingly making in-roads in other commercial lines. Progressive has built durable competitive advantages through efficient, low-cost direct distribution, investments in technology and analytics, and scale. This has allowed them to price their products attractively and take market share over time, while still earning above average margins and returns on equity. All indications suggest the company can continue to perform in this manner moving forward. The industry is in the middle of a recovery from a highly disruptive period during the pandemic, which has led to strong top and bottom-line growth for Progressive. The shares have done well as the recovery has played out, yet still trade at a sizeable discount to the market.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alphyn Capital Management on Prosus NV $PRX NA</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Prosus NV is poised for long-term growth driven by its ambitious e-commerce strategy and continued profitability, despite vulnerabilities linked to Tencent and broader market sentiment surrounding China.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/19DkL-cGL7_nWds5-BUKLoCdvvxjwyi7Y/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Prosus’s share price remains closely tethered to Tencent, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in broader sentiment surrounding China. After benefiting from Chinese stimulus measures earlier in the year, Tencent and, by extension, Prosus softened last quarter. Still, Prosus ended up almost 34% for the full year.<br /><br />A more significant driver is the new CEO’s ambitious growth strategy for the non-Tencent e-commerce portfolio, which targets $400 million in operating profit this fiscal year and $800 million by March 2026. Prosus’ e-commerce businesses have continued their robust revenue growth, 26% in the twelve months to September 2024, and are now starting to deliver meaningful profitability as promised by the company.<br /><br />Alongside organic growth, the company continues to shape its portfolio. Recent actions include selling Trip.com for $1.4 billion, taking Swiggy public with a partial stake sale of $500 million, and reorganizing some of its OLX businesses. Prosus announced the $1.7 billion acquisition of Despegar, Latin America’s leading online travel agency, in December. Management believes Prosus can unlock significant value by leveraging its extensive ecosystem. This strategy focuses on capitalizing on cross-selling opportunities with iFood’s customer base, improving margins through integrated payment solutions, and achieving operational efficiencies through shared technologies across the portfolio.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Greystone Capital Management on Sylogist $SYZ CN</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Sylogist’s high recurring revenues, solid growth, and counter-cyclical software demand support strong long-term upside potential.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Yn_03ksv9k5IXlQVLmHRd-_Tqobc6_NQ/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>For Sylogist, one of our longest tenured holdings, I’m not sure which is easier to understand, the business, or the investment case. Selling high value prop ERP and CRM software to sticky customers with growing demand, with the opportunity to cross sell and raise prices over time is the business in a nutshell.<br /><br />As far as the value I see, companies with Sylogist’s fundamentals, nearly 70% recurring revenue, >15% annual revenue growth, 60% gross margins (75% for software), 25% EBITDA margins and strong cash flow conversion don’t trade at a high single digit multiple of cash flow. Especially when they are non-discretionary with counter-cyclical aspects. Public sector organizations that rely on their ERP systems, fund accounting and document management capabilities don’t rip out their software when the economy hits a snag.<br /><br />Whenever I get frustrated at the market’s reaction to Sylogist’s operating performance, I remind myself about how the business has moved from here to there since our first purchases. Revenues have grown 17% per year since 2021, organic growth in recurring subscription revenue has gone from negative in 2022 to a mid-teens rate today, and Sylogist has gone from a standing start in their Gov and Ed initiatives to generating nearly $30mm in high margin revenue between the two segments. Were it not for growth investments being made, EBITDA would be accelerating nicely along with top line growth. The market is skeptical these investments will ultimately pay off. I am not. This is the year that accelerated growth and operating leverage will materialize.<br /><br />We added to our position toward the end of the year, and we were not alone. I was thrilled to see multiple members of the management team, including CEO Bill Wood, purchase stock in the open market toward year end. In addition, management has complemented their efforts by repurchasing stock at opportune times, providing a boost to free cash flow per share. Sylogist is our largest position for good reason. I see upside of greater than 100% over time, and I am optimistic about 2025 and beyond.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Optimist Fund on ThredUp $TDUP US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>ThredUp is a leading second-hand managed marketplace in the U.S. that offers significant potential for free cash flow growth, currently undervalued due to past challenges, while uniquely providing a full-service selling experience.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/147DpZYpyZxrieFhjstvj1A3izFYfmumf/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>ThredUp is the leading second-hand managed marketplace in the United States, positioned to deliver significant free cash flow growth over the next five years. Despite this potential, the stock currently trades at an exceptionally attractive valuation due to two main factors: a stumble in 2024 that we believe has been successfully addressed and a historical pattern of cash burn, which we now see inflecting into material free cash flow generation. The second-hand clothing market is large, rapidly expanding, and gaining share in the broader retail landscape. Unlike most second-hand platforms, which operate as asset-light models where sellers list and sell their own items, ThredUp has a distinctive, full-service approach. Customers receive a "Clean Out Kit," fill it with items they wish to sell, and ship it back to ThredUp. From there, ThredUp manages the entire process—sorting, photographing, storing, listing, and shipping the items for sale. Sellers receive 20% to 80% of the proceeds, depending on the item's value, as shop credit or cash. This complex operational model forms a strong competitive moat. As the only U.S. second-hand mass-market managed marketplace, ThredUp's ability to handle logistics, processing, and marketing while delivering value to all stakeholders positions it to generate attractive returns as it profitably scales the platform it has built over the past decade.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Laughing Water Capital on Thryv Inc. $THRY US</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Thryv Inc. is a fast-growing small and medium business software company poised for significant market appreciation due to strong execution, impressive year-over-year customer growth, and positive financial metrics despite recent challenges with equity financing.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12PKzs3rJ0AaUGBpRchwXHyfT6ZYmINYr/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Thryv Inc. (THRY) — Thryv, our small and medium business software company, continues to execute well, and the market continues to not care. 2024 highlights include refinancing their debt on favorable terms, growing customer count 46% YOY through Q3, reaching rule of 40, bringing net dollar retention above 100%, and making an acquisition that will expand their go-to-market channels and add automation tools. To be fair, the acquisition was financed by an equity raise that was very poorly done, but the strategic logic behind the acquisition was explained at a recent investor day, and with time I think the market will come to appreciate it.<br /><br />Also at this investor day, management compared Thryv to similar businesses and demonstrated that Thryv is growing faster with higher rule of 40 than HubSpot (HUBS) and Service Titan (TTAN). It is true that HUBS has scaled further than THRY, but HUBS trades at ~12x ‘25 consensus revenue, and THRY trades at ~2x my estimate of ’25 SAAS revenue, and THRY is inflecting right now. Service Titan just recently IPO’d at 10x revenues and quickly traded up nearly 50%. These comparisons are admittedly not apples to apples, but they are not apples to horse-apples either. As Thryv continues to execute the market will take notice eventually, and shares should re-rate significantly higher.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alluvial Capital on Titan Cement $TITC GA</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Titan Cement’s planned US IPO unlocks value, with shares trading at a discount despite strong global operations and financial stewardship.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nrUvnfmzM5-a5G2zoeEMqPq0q51lYgQb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Now, the new. The fund’s most significant new holding is Titan Cement International SA. It’s no secret we’re cement fans here at Alluvial HQ. Monarch Cement, Boston Sand & Gravel, and Cementos Argos SA are all fund holdings and all have treated us very well. A wave of infrastructure investment, combined with a long period of underinvestment in domestic cement production capacity, have resulted in heady times for American cement producers, with most reporting record profits and a healthy outlook. Valuations have risen in tandem with results, and the industry now trades at 9-12x EBITDA or even higher, depending on size, location, and product mix. This optimism has not extended to cement producers in Europe, many of which are valued at 5-7x EBITDA. This includes Titan Cement, a Greek company with operations in Southern and Southeastern Europe, Egypt, Turkey, and a joint venture in Brazil. Oh, and a large US business that contributes more than half of the company’s revenue and earnings. Titan Cement got tired of its depressed valuation and decided to do something about it. Seeing that US cement producers are valued at a premium of 50% or more to European cement producers, Titan decided to IPO a portion of its US business. “Titan America SA” will soon list on the NYSE. Titan shares have responded well to the news, but they remain attractively priced. Assuming Titan America SA is valued at 8-9x EBITDA, the market is still ascribing nearly zero value to Titan’s profitable non-US operations. Titan has not yet discussed its plan for the cash influx it will receive from the partial divestiture of Titan America, but the company has a history of good financial stewardship. Titan Cement International SA shares trade in Athens and Brussels at around €44, but are worth at least €60.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Laughing Water Capital on Vistry Group PLC $VTY LN</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Vistry Group PLC is currently undervalued despite recent setbacks in its transition to a Partnerships model, with potential for significant earnings growth in the near future.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/12PKzs3rJ0AaUGBpRchwXHyfT6ZYmINYr/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Vistry Group PLC (VTY.L) – Vistry, our UK homebuilder that is in the midst of winding down their traditional homebuilding business in order to focus fully on their asset light Partnerships model, had a wild ride in 2024. Shares rose ~50% through the first 3 quarters of 2025 as the market believed this business model transition was proceeding flawlessly. However, in early Q4 it became clear that the company had hit some bumps – including improperly accounting for costs – along the way, and shares ended the year down ~39%. Importantly, these bumps are almost entirely tied to the legacy business which is in the process of being shut down. As this business is in the process of being shut down, the problems tied to it are finite by nature, and thus should not be capitalized indefinitely. In fact, management has quantified the problem as £105M in 2024, £50M this year, and presumably zero in 2026. Given the amount of insider buying in the wake of these bumps, I suspect that those who know the most about the business seem to agree with this view.</p><p>To be fair though, part of the valuation disconnect is legitimate as related to market structure. Vistry’s stumbles led to removal from the FTSE 100 index, which comes with forced selling. Additionally, Vistry management’s credibility has been damaged, so perhaps the business deserves a lower multiple than I previously thought.</p><p>However, at present shares are trading below tangible book value, while historically traditional home builders in the UK have traded at more than 1.5x book value. Or another way to look at it is Vistry is trading at about 8x the Partnerships EBIT they generated prior to their 2022 merger with Countryside, while precedent transactions have taken place at low double-digit multiples. This of course gives no value to the Countryside acquisition, no value to undeniable improvements made to the business over the last two years, and no value to the ongoing wind down of the traditional business and related capital return. This suggests that if Vistry fails at everything and just bumbles along as a run of the mill home builder, shares are still cheap.</p><p>More importantly though, I have not lost faith in the idea that a Partnerships focused homebuilder can succeed. This has been a frustrating investment to date, but despite recent troubles, homebuilding is not a business facing terminal risk. The transition has not proceeded as smoothly as hoped, but I do not believe there is evidence to suggest that it will fail. Over the next 12-18 months as the one time costs tied to the recent stumbles move to the rearview mirror, as the Company continues to repurchase shares, and (hopefully) as the new Labour government pursues housing friendly policies, I expect that the market will once again focus on the actual earnings power of the business, which I believe should be well north of 500M GBP in operating profit for 2025, suggesting that at present shares trade at less than 3x EBIT.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><h3><strong>Alluvial Capital on Zegona $ZEG LN</strong></h3><p><strong>Thesis:<br /></strong>Zegona is a London-listed investment company making significant progress in improving Vodafone Spain's profitability and cash flow, with plans for asset sales and potential shareholder distributions ahead.</p><p><strong>Source</strong>: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nrUvnfmzM5-a5G2zoeEMqPq0q51lYgQb/view?usp=drivesdk</p><p><strong>Analysis:<br /></strong>Zegona is a London-listed investment company that undertook a leveraged buyout of under-performing Spanish telecom, Vodafone Spain. In my last letter, I outlined the initiatives that Zegona would pursue to improve profitability and optimize the balance sheet. I am pleased to report that excellent progress is being made, and that Zegona shares have responded accordingly. The company’s September 30 report showed stabilizing revenues and greatly improved cash flow. The planned sale of Vodafone Spain’s fiber-optic assets is moving ahead nicely, with both deals expected to be completed in the first half of 2025. Following the asset sale, Zegona will pay down a substantial portion of its acquisition debt and will likely declare a large shareholder distribution. Despite the healthy move in Zegona Communications shares, the company trades at less than half my estimate of fair value. The company’s operational turnaround is still in the early stages, and the complicated financials makes the ongoing value creation easy to miss. With multiple catalysts on the horizon, I have Great Expectations for Zegona.</p><p><strong><a href="https://finchat.io/?via=tom">Check here for the latest results, quarterly call and analysts' estimates.</a></strong></p><div><hr /></div><p></p><p><em>Everything you read here is for information purposes only and is not an investment recommendation.</em></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input class="email-input" name="email" tabindex="-1" type="email" /><input class="button primary" type="submit" value="Subscribe" /><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>