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Diamonds Aren’t Forever

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Feb 10, 2025 · 16:18

<p>The diamond industry is dying.</p><p>Three weeks ago, The Bear Cave <a href="https://thebearcave.substack.com/p/problems-at-signet-jewelers-sig">highlighted</a> the disruption from lab-grown diamonds, which are chemically, optically, and physically identical to natural diamonds but much cheaper and environmentally sustainable. The Bear Cave wrote, &#8220;The trend of lab-grown diamonds is accelerating quickly [and] will cause a strong devaluation in both mined and lab-grown diamond prices.&#8221;</p><p>Today, the situation is even worse.</p><p>PriceScope, which calls itself &#8220;the largest diamond and jewelry community,&#8221; publishes average price data for the 1.2 million mined diamonds listed on its platform.</p><p>Its data, ranging from small diamonds under 0.5 carats to larger ones over 4 carats, was updated on February 1 and shows another steep decline in diamond prices:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37c9120b-f650-472c-a347-233cf2a5febb_1592x1492.png" target="_blank"><div class="image2-inset"><source type="image/webp" /><img alt="" class="sizing-normal" height="1365" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37c9120b-f650-472c-a347-233cf2a5febb_1592x1492.png" width="1456" /><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg class="lucide lucide-maximize2" fill="none" height="20" stroke="currentColor" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" stroke-width="2" viewBox="0 0 24 24" width="20" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">(<a href="https://www.pricescope.com/diamond-prices/diamond-prices-chart/">PriceScope mined diamond price data</a>)</figcaption></figure></div><p>Recent reporting suggests even more problems ahead.</p><p>A January 18 article in the Guardian titled &#8220;<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/19/mined-and-lab-grown-diamonds-difference-can-you-tell-prices">Mined diamonds are a waste of money, an expert says</a>&#8221; interviewed Steve Richards of Australian Diamond Wholesale Brokers, who said,</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;I&#8217;m a gemologist and a diamond technologist and I&#8217;ve been doing it for 30 years and if you put one next to the other I wouldn&#8217;t have a freakin&#8217; clue which is lab-grown&#8230; <strong>I wouldn&#8217;t buy mined diamonds again; you&#8217;re wasting your money</strong>.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>The article also stated:</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Market participants told Guardian Australia that <strong>a one-carat natural diamond, triple excellent &#8211; excellent cut, excellent polish and excellent symmetry &#8211;</strong> <strong>wholesales for about $3,500. A lab-grown equivalent wholesales for about $250, or one-fourteenth the price</strong>.&#8221; (Emphasis ours)</p></blockquote><p>Likewise, a Bloomberg article published two days ago titled &#8220;<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-02-04/de-beers-turmoil-is-symptom-of-diamond-industry-crisis">The $80 Billion Diamond Market Crash Leaves De Beers Reeling</a>&#8221; reported that many diamond buyers of De Beers were &#8220;furious and alienated.&#8221; The article continued:</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Last year, De Beers for months refused to lower its diamond prices even though the rest of the market was collapsing &#8212; and so many of its customers simply refused to buy. When it finally capitulated in December, <strong>the cuts were seen as too little, too late</strong>&#8230;&#8221;</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>&#8220;<strong>[De Beers] had capitulated with a cut of between 10% and 15%. But De Beers rough diamonds were still far more expensive than diamonds in the secondary market, where traders and manufacturers sell among each other&#8230; Again, buyers were left fuming</strong>.&#8221;</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>&#8220;What started as a post-pandemic slump has spiraled out of control so that even in a market renowned for boom and bust cycles, <strong>industry veterans say the crisis is the worst they&#8217;ve ever seen</strong>.&#8221;</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>&#8220;Trade buyers and industry experts estimate that <strong>between $30 million and $40 million a month of excess polished diamonds are being dumped back into the Indian wholesale market by Chinese retailers, with about $700 million in total flowing back to India</strong>. More than $1 billion has recirculated in China, they say.&#8221;</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>&#8220;<strong>De Beers has also committed to spending more on promoting diamonds than at any point in the past 15 years</strong>.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>Women are happily shifting away from mined diamonds.</p><p><a href="https://www.worldsyouroysta.com/">World&#8217;s Your Oysta</a> is a women-focused podcast on &#8220;navigating career shifts and balancing ambition with self-care to cultivating joy in the everyday.&#8221; The <a href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0QtnULcsft88p1h4Ub6es9">September 6 2024 podcast</a> is with Leah Silberman, the founder of <a href="https://elleperahia.com/">Elle Perahia</a>, which sells &#8220;high-quality fine jewelry using lab diamonds and solid gold. Made for the modern, chic woman.&#8221;</p><p>The host, Paula Sanders, asks Ms. Silberman if she would want a lab-grown engagement ring. The exchange exemplifies the shift of younger women away from mined diamonds.</p><blockquote><p>Ms. Silberman: &#8220;It&#8217;s so funny you ask that. At this point, I can&#8217;t imagine getting a natural diamond. And<strong> if you asked me that a year ago, I probably would have said I want a natural diamond for an engagement. But at this point, I can&#8217;t really justify it. I mean, get me a lab-grown ring,</strong>&nbsp;and then let&#8217;s talk other things. Let&#8217;s go on a great trip after and do all of these other things.&#8221; (36:12)</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Ms. Sanders (host): &#8220;Honestly, it&#8217;s so true. <strong>Diamonds just feel antiquated to me</strong>. In this day and age, there are so many other things I want. <strong>If I can have a three-and-a-half carat emerald-shaped diamond for a third of the price and go on an amazing trip instead and spend three nights in H&#244;tel du Cap, I would so much rather have that.</strong> Because who even cares and who even knows [if you have a lab-grown]?&#8221; </p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Ms. Silberman: &#8220;Exactly, <strong>nobody is coming up to you and saying &#8216;is this natural?&#8217;</strong>&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>The Bear Cave believes collapsing prices, internal industry turmoil, and consumer sentiment shifts all mark the beginning of the end for the diamond industry.</p><p>The Bear Cave has identified two $1 billion+ U.S. companies, several small international diamond miners, and an entire country set to be significantly harmed by the downfall of diamonds.</p><p>They are:</p>
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