Position - 7669 shares @ $28 ; planning to buy additional 6521 @ $23.
For the sake of transparency, I am holding a sizable bag, but I'm also willing to double down with my remaining cash because after doing a deep dive on the cause of a 9.5% dip I think this is an excellent buying opportunity. For those who don't know about SOC I feel this is an excellent read - [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i6v4hc/soc\_trumps\_executive\_order\_just\_turned\_california/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i6v4hc/soc_trumps_executive_order_just_turned_california/)
Background: SOC plunged 9.5% yesterday based, from what I can tell, this article: [https://www.independent.com/2025/02/05/goleta-city-council-opposes-sable-pipeline-santa-barbara-resistance-grows/](https://www.independent.com/2025/02/05/goleta-city-council-opposes-sable-pipeline-santa-barbara-resistance-grows/)
It sounds pretty scary, city council say they're backing local environmentalists in an upcoming vote on the 25th Feb not to turn the pipeline back on. Market shit itself as any kind of delay can be very bad news for SOC. However, it's not as scary as it seems. First off, the Goleta City Council are effectively complaining as private citizens - they don't get to vote, that's up to the 'Board of Supervisors.'
This board consists of five members [https://www.countyofsb.org/1599/Board-of-Supervisors](https://www.countyofsb.org/1599/Board-of-Supervisors) :
Laura Capps - Chair
Bob Nelson - VP
Steve Lavagnino
Joan Hartmann
Roy Lee
Now, Joan Hartmann, has already reclused herself from any Sable vote as her property would be affected by the opening that leaves four remaining voters and **due to this being an appeal hearing a tie is a victory for SOC** \- [https://www.independent.com/2024/11/05/sable-oil-wins-first-round-in-santa-barbara-county/](https://www.independent.com/2024/11/05/sable-oil-wins-first-round-in-santa-barbara-county/)
So, who are our four contenders and where do they stand?
Laura Capps, has been pretty much anti-Sable all the way through so her vote is almost certainly going to be against. However, both Lavagnino and Nelson have pretty consistently gone the way of big oil even to the point when they were doing one of those waste of time cookie cutter '2030 vision for the future' they were softening the language on alternative fuels:
[https://www.independent.com/2024/09/04/santa-barbara-county-folds-to-sable/](https://www.independent.com/2024/09/04/santa-barbara-county-folds-to-sable/)
[https://www.independent.com/2024/08/28/santa-barbara-county-adopts-2030-climate-action-plan/](https://www.independent.com/2024/08/28/santa-barbara-county-adopts-2030-climate-action-plan/)
Technically, those two votes are enough to get it through, but Roy Lee could even make it 3 to 1 as he considers himself a 'pro-business moderate Dem'
[https://www.independent.com/2024/03/06/challenger-roy-lee-poised-for-upset-victory-over-incumbent-das-williams/](https://www.independent.com/2024/03/06/challenger-roy-lee-poised-for-upset-victory-over-incumbent-das-williams/)
His voting record isn't well-known enough to know either way though. Regardless, altogether I'm willing to take the leap and double down.
**TLDR - Stock sold off due to panic on a vote that will very likely go the way of SOC. Calls scare me, so I'll be buying shares, but we should see some pretty northwards price action on the 25th/26th Feb.**