HIMS: One Stock to rule them all (in telehealth) (PART 3 DD Nov. 11)
My last HIMS DD, Part 2 available here: [**https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1g4c8z9/hims\_dark\_patterns\_part\_2\_up\_47\_since\_last\_post/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1g4c8z9/hims_dark_patterns_part_2_up_47_since_last_post/)
The price was $21 then and is up 35% now to $28 and flirting with $30 today.
It is still criminally undervalued, but why do we see the recent jump and what do we have to look forward to?
Tirzeptide is next up; there was a LEAKED instagram ad this past weekend that was quickly taken down that showed HIMS old ads with Semaglutide replaced on the bottle....with TIRZEPTIDE! Much easier to customize this drug...bullish for compounding. HERE WE GO.
HIMS CFO confirmed on their earnings call last week; if NOVOs drugs come off shortage they will no longer sell compounded doses equivalent to NOVOs doses...but they WILL still compound tailored doses. He also stated they will continue to sell branded GLP1 copy of ozempic, as well as Liraglutide compounded which will be off patent soon. The key point here is: HIMS will ALWAYS have some sort of GLP1 and the cross sell is accelerating, new customers are spending more and more on their subscriptions!
This means a double down on GLP1 with a caveat to dodge lawsuits. Dark Pattern tactics will ensure they maintain and grow sales in weight loss category.
FDA reconsidered removing the GLP1s from shortage in response to a compounder letter to FDA, decision will be next week but it's bullish that it was even taken seriously vs. big pharma's counter letters. Most think this is going HIMS way.
RFK and Trump admin is historically anti FDA reg (announced policy) and specifically, ANTI NOVO (RFKs tweets have been slamming NOVO's profits on GLP1 constantly).
HIMS is projecting 90%+ growth in Q4...with now 2M users, 72% gross margin, and capturing 54% of all new telehealth customers...
HIMS IS what Teledoc could have been if they had ever been profitable and didn't flush $25B down the toilet.
HIMS is the future of telehealth. This is AMAZON when they were just selling books. The most operationally efficient platform (using AI to reduce cost of doctors with MedMatch) with the best customer experience.
As we reach escape velocity, price target is $60-100 EOY given the excellent macro environment, and this would only put HIMS at a pathetic 20B mkt cap or 10x PS ratio for a company that might be growing 100%+ rev. per year, with well over $2B rev next year...
We haven't even seen their reveal of testosterone replacement therapy yet, but adds being focused around low test means its coming. Maybe Q4.
I have about 40k in Jan 26 leaps 30strike. Happy to share position with a mod for proof.
If you want a speculative play does it get any better? If it does PLEASE share with me I still have some cash ready for my next play.