**TL;DR:** Investors are pulling back from pharmaceutical stocks as RFK Jr. has been appointed to lead HHS, creating an opportunity for $HIMS stock while it is still undervalued. If RFK pushes to block Medicare/Medicaid coverage of costly anti-obesity drugs like Ozempic, Wegovy, and Zepbound, people could turn to more affordable alternatives like $HIMS. In 2022, Medicare alone spent over $4.6 billion on Ozempic, and that number likely ballooned in 2023/2024. As RFK targets big pharma, affordable GLP-1 drugs from $HIMS and similar platforms could become the go-to option.
**Pharma Pullback**
Criticisms of the pharmaceutical industry by RFK Jr. have led to uncertainty in big pharma, resulting in a sell-off. This sell-off has indirectly affected companies like $HIMS, as some investors are unsure of his stance on anti-obesity drugs. Understanding RFK’s viewpoint on these drugs can help us strategize for potential market opportunities.
*Citations:*
* [BBC Article](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp3nzp782ejo)
* [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/15/pharma-shares-trump-rfk-jr-health-vaccine-drugmakers-moderna-astrazeneca-gsk)
**GLP-1 Reliance**
After individuals have been using GLP-1 medications for some time, they may need to continue the treatment long-term to maintain its benefits. This ongoing requirement creates a strong and sustained business opportunity surrounding these drugs.
GLP-1 receptor agonists, like semaglutide (Ozempic) and tirzepatide, are widely used for weight loss. According to Martin Whyte, an associate professor of metabolic medicine, these drugs provide doses far greater than the body naturally produces, suppressing the body’s ability to produce GLP-1 on its own. This can lead to increased hunger when people stop taking the medication, making weight regain almost inevitable.
A study published in the **Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA)** found that placebo users gained 7% of their weight back compared to those who continued taking GLP-1 drugs, who saw an average weight loss of -7.9%. If Medicare/Medicaid stops covering these drugs, patients will either regain weight or seek affordable alternatives like $HIMS, which offers GLP-1 treatments for $200 per month, compared to the $1,300 a month of the name brand
*Citations:*
* [BBC Future](https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20240521-what-happens-when-you-stop-taking-ozempic)
* [JAMA Study](https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2777886)
**RFK's Stance on Obesity Drugs**
RFK doesn’t oppose obesity drugs themselves but believes that the core problem of obesity lies in the poor quality of food in the U.S. He has criticized pharmaceutical giants like Novo Nordisk for their focus on selling to Americans while ignoring the underlying health crisis.
RFK has pointed out that the massive spending on drugs like Ozempic could be better spent on improving food systems and promoting healthier lifestyles. He critiques that while Novo Nordisk profits from Ozempic sales in the U.S., its home country focuses on diet and exercise as obesity solutions. His criticism aligns with an agenda to move away from pharmaceutical dependency as solution to obesity.
*Citations:*
* [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/what-rfk-jr-has-said-about-ozempic-popular-weight-loss-drug-1987159)
* [Tweet with RFK's Quote](https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/1846608289884524977)
* [RFK’s Tweet](https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1839286350626914756)
**Why This Matters for $HIMS**
Medicare spent more than $4.6 billion on Ozempic in 2022, and the widespread adoption of these GLP-1 drugs likely pushed that figure higher in 2024. The FDA approval of drugs like Wegovy as anti-obesity treatments has most likely ballooned spending.
The following chart illustrates the rapid increase in sales of GLP-1-based anti-obesity medications over the recent year. Wegovy and Zepbound sales have skyrocketed, reflecting the strong demand for weight-loss treatments.
[Sales of Brand Name GLP-1 Anti Obesity Medication \(Congressional Budget Office\)](https://preview.redd.it/gh5i5co8qp1e1.png?width=975&format=png&auto=webp&s=aac413829cb8fb15afb8851d3ec0b880810e4e9a)
If RFK succeeds in restricting Medicare/Medicaid coverage for these expensive weight-loss drugs, people will look for more affordable solutions. This opens an opportunity for $HIMS, which offers GLP-1 drugs at a much lower cost via its platform. As mainstream options become restricted, $HIMS could see a significant boost in demand.
*Citations:*
* [Congressional Budget Office Report](https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60816)
* [KFF Analysis](https://www.kff.org/medicare/issue-brief/a-new-use-for-wegovy-opens-the-door-to-medicare-coverage-for-millions-of-people-with-obesity/)
* [CNBC Coverage](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/21/medicare-can-cover-weight-loss-drugs-if-used-for-added-health-benefit.html)
While there are many possible scenarios, my research suggests that this is a path forward. With RFK’s push to limit big pharma influence, $HIMS may emerge as a key player in the affordable weight management space.
[My previous post going over $hims financials and how it squares up against Amazon](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1grqbx7/hims_stock_can_it_compete_with_amazons_move_into/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Positions:
1500 shares & 10 calls @$20 1/16/26