I am stumped by calendar spreads. Even when the underlying price does exactly what I want (sit there), and the IV crush comes in, I end up exiting for way less gain than I should have in theory. For example, a PODD call spread at 280 expiring today (2/21) should have netted over $2K, but the realized gain was only a few hundred.
Am I just not waiting long enough? I am currently setting these up with the short leg as near to earnings as possible and the long leg a month out from there. I am buying a few days or up to a week before earnings, whenever I can see that the probability of profit is at least 80%.