This isn’t bear porn and I’m going to get flamed for this one, but I think NVDA has a red week coming. Earnings were very good, beating on both EPS and rev, but guidance came in conservative. Gross margins were also down slightly to 74.6% from 75.1% in the previous quarter(still insane numbers). The issue with this slight deceleration is that the stock is priced for exponential growth like we’ve been seeing for a couple years now. That ridiculous growth may be slowing down a little for now, and their new Blackwell chips are still rolling out. We don’t know what kind of revenue those will bring in yet. The stock got plenty of price hikes post earnings, but nothing too significant(160-170’s for the most part). It just seems like the train is slowing down a bit.
As far as the chart goes, it has tried to break and hold $149-150 7 times since November 6. It briefly broke over the day after earnings, but was quickly bitch slapped back below that threshold. IMO, this earnings report was the catalyst that it needed to get over that resistance, and it has clearly failed to do so. So the question is: where do we go from here? We’re right on the trend line that it’s held since September 6. We could go higher, but earnings failed to impress the market, and it doesn’t seem like we have enough gas to pump it higher just yet. We saw some significant selling pressure today without any buyers stepping in EOD. I think that trend continues Monday and we break the trend line. That is a solid red daily candle today, and I expect to see a gap down and another candle just like that on Monday. I would love to see it hit the 100 day EMA(right around $130) and bounce from there. Thats definitely the spot to load up on calls if you’re still bullish(which you should be).
One more risk over the next few days and weeks: geopolitical tensions. Normally we just ignore everything Putin says, but the escalation of launching an Oreshnik ICBM and hitting Dnipro can not be ignored. NATO is holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss this event. There have been many escalations recently, with multiple countries now directly involved in the conflict. Monitor it and tread carefully.