Maybe there is a bag-holder bug going around... I hope my case isn't too bad.
Tldr:
I'm all in TWLO with nvda sprinkles because Twilio is an "AI pick and shovel" play that is being heavily slept on lol. AI is going to the moon. TWLO is also trading at a significant discount relative to its SaaS peers.
Just look at its weekly chart. Durrrr.
Also, I don't think I have to say anything about NVDA besides "buy the dip."
Real TLDR at very bottom if you don't wanna read.
Why am I being regarded?
1. I've been inspired by people like ElonIloveyou or whatever that guy's name is, and hopefully, if I hop on the wave quick enough, I can ride it to Valhalla :)
2. TWLO is SO cheap right now
Although it fell fantastically... what goes down must always go up?
- Current Price-to-Sales (P/S): 2.6x
This is drastically lower than SaaS peers like Snowflake (25x) or ServiceNow (14x). For context, Twilio’s P/S ratio peaked at 20x plus during its high-growth phase in 2021.
- Enterprise Value (EV) to Revenue: 3.8x
This is also much lower than peers (Smartsheet at 5.6-5.7x, ServiceNow at 12.5-13.8x, ZoomInfo at 7.7x).
3. Although they aren't profitable (who tf is and who cares), their revenue growth is strong and growing and their & margins are healthy.
- Revenue (TTM): $4.07 billion (a solid 10% YoY growth in a tough macro environment)
- Gross margins are stabilizing at 50%
- Cash Balance: $3.8 billion
TWLO has also maintained very low debt compared to peers
4. TWLO has many tailwinds
- Twilio’s recent initiatives include embedding generative AI and predictive analytics into its platforms. TWLO's most recent guidance signaled this advancement to be a significant revenue driver long term.
- Twilio has implemented significant cost-cutting measures and achieved $150 million in annualized savings in Q3 - by focusing on core high-margin products while exiting non-core businesses (Prolly some more tech layoffs around the corner across the board).
- Valuable collabs with Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Salesforce enhance Twilio’s market reach.
- The global CPaaS (Communications Platform as a Service) market is expected to grow from $12 billion in 2023 to $35 billion by 2030, representing a CAGR of ~16%. Twilio dominates this space.
- HEAVY INSTITUTIONAL ACCUMULATION HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY. Vanguard and BlackRock have increased their stakes. The big fish are confident in the TWLO turn aruond story.
5. The technical ANALysis says calls, I think.
- TWLO has broken above its 200-day moving average
- Key support levels: $102, $98.50, $92.
- Resistance levels: $110, $115, and $120.
- High open interest in near-term $110 and $115 calls, super DUPER low IV... maybe for a reason, but idk.
TLDR:
TWLO Is Primed for Upside because:
- Twilio is heavily discounted on all valuation metrics, providing a high margin of safety.
- AI-driven products and cost optimizations are setting the stage for sustained margin growth.
- Technical and options data suggest growing institutional and retail interest.
If you’re looking for a quality tech SaaS play at value-stock prices, Twilio deserves a spot on your radar. Shares and/or options will definitely hit, probably.
I posted my positions. Not sure when I’ll sell…I will likely be the catalyst for the next leg up.