“In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the... Anyone? Anyone?...
*The Great Depression, passed the...*
*Anyone? Anyone?* ***The tariff bill?***
*The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act? Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?...*
***Raised tariffs***\*, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government.\*
***Did it work***\*? Anyone?\*
*Anyone know the effects?*
*It did not work, and t****he United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.****”*
Opening Scene of Ferris Bueller's Day Off: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuOHbyuanbY)
**Inauguration of Trump Monday** is priced in, and it was priced very high in November (Expectations high). What is not priced in, is the exact outcome of the flood of Executive Orders waiting to signed on Monday. We have some hints of what they will be, but I don’t think anyone knows exactly what they will be and how they will be viewed from the market. I expect a wild ride, but I don't think the outcomes will match the predictions.
**My Speculation:**
**1. National Emergency**
Who the hell knows what it will be? Economic? Border crisis? Public health? Your guess is as good as mine. But there will be one, and the markets won’t like it. (There are [several reports](https://www.beckersasc.com/supply-chain/trump-eyes-national-emergency-declaration-to-levy-tariffs.html) on this already.) Plus Trump declared seven national emergencies last time, and another would give him sweeping powers to make significant executive order changes. **Puts on SPX OTM.**
**2. Tariffs**
I’m taking the man at his word: tariffs are coming. The specifics—what and how much—remain unknown, but most economists agree this will be bad news. Tariffs also happen to feature in the intro to my favorite movie, so that’s good enough DD for me. Long **puts on XLY** and throwing in a little **SOYB puts** as well. (Thanks, [Soy Boy](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1i37uof/spilling_the_beans_on_tariffs_the_untold_story_of/).)
**3. Bitcoin (IBIT)**
I know, I know. But hear me out—Trump isn’t going to do anything to *hurt* BTC. At least not yet. There will at least be signaling of something positive (per many [news sources](https://www.investors.com/news/trump-bitcoin-crypto-day-one-first-100-days-executive-orders-policies/)). Plus, if the S&P 500 goes down, BTC believers will flock to it as a safe haven. If the S&P 500 goes up, BTC holders will reinvest their stock gains to buy more BTC. (My wild speculation is that banking regulation of BTC will be loosened, and the sale of existing US gov BTC will be halted.) Either way, it seems like Bitcoin has an upward trajectory. **Calls on IBIT.**
**4. Hedge**
If the markets tank, they’ll tank hard and my deep OTM puts will pay big. However, there’s always a chance they’ll go up. To cover my bases, I’m doing a straddle on SPX on a 1DTE. If I’m wrong and lose all my puts, the calls might help me break even. And if my puts hit, I won’t care about the call premium. (Neutral markets? Theta crushes me like a sad ant.) I am sure there is some math that says I am doing it wrong. I will pick up a **call on SPX ATM** towards the end of the day.
**Sidenote:**
I’m stuck holding **puts on DJT** until it plummets. My DJT calls already paid off, so whatever I get out of those puts is pure profit at this point. As a put on TSLA, because screw them.
I’ve been slowly building these positions over time (which is a very stupid strategy), and it’s been a rough week. As a rainbow bear, I’ve been getting punished while theta eats me alive. So here’s a little loss porn for your enjoyment as well to show current positions. If doesn't work out, I am doing "no options February"...
Edit: Positions didn't come through. (My regards.)
https://preview.redd.it/oyfeynibwlde1.png?width=518&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9158f186c3308c1a51919f7a1db2403ef1f50e4