For one of the few times in my life, I'm actually worried about markets and the economy. Here's what I see and I'm wondering what are the counter-arguments.
1. Valuations are sky-high.
2. We're seeing mass layoffs.
3. The government's role in the economy is further decreasing via spending cuts.
4. Inflation is still above target; hence, monetary conditions are tight.
5. Tariffs will further aggravate inflation.
To summarize, money supply is on a downward trend and yet costs will continue to rise. Does this not set up the US (and hence, the world) economy for a recession/stagflation scenario? And how much of a haircut will stocks trading way above historical averages get?
Currently holding March 21 610 puts, bought yesterday.