With the current information I have, I think nvidia's growth is slowing down, and that they're gonna stay conservative to beat earnings. This, paired with their trend of falling on earnings regardless of surprises like during their previous two earnings, is gonna happen again and make the stock dip a few %.
Things to keep in mind :
1. Nvidia is gonna have to address the deepseek impacts, what could they possibly say to deter the fears that AI is getting more efficient to compute? It's not a question of chip performance, it's a question of being able to do the same or more, on less. Deepseek, while clearly did not cost 5.6mln to develop, still came out to have a pricetag that was significantly cheaper than OpenAI's development cost of 20bln (between 1-2bln, and this was on older Nvidia hardware). It's going to get increasingly more difficult to justify their exorbitant prices for their GPUs and chips, margins are gonna shrink.
2. Mag7 Capex investments mean multiple companies are going to be coming up with their own chips, while Nvidia still hold the performance lead on theirs, others like AMD could catch up in the future. Furthermore, Microsofts newest quantum chip just knocked the expectations of commercially deploying quantum computing from a couple of decades to a couple of years. While they don't have the production ready yet, they have all the infrastructure online and ready. Nvidia's monopoly is coming to an end faster than we're expecting.
3. Nvidia historically tends to fall on earnings, their previous 2 reports all led to a noticeable drop in share price, even though they were beating their main metrics by a long shot.
What do you guys think is gonna happen post-earnings to Nvidia? I'm setting a pre-earnings target of about 145$. Eager to hear what you guys think.