Been watching semis for a while now and the equipment names keep flying under the broader chip conversation, which is kinda wild given the setups here.
LRCX has 28.8% projected revenue growth this quarter and holds something like 45% of the etch market. KLAC just announced a 10-for-1 stock split AND a 21% dividend increase. AMAT is looking at around $9B revenue, up 23% YoY, with their EPIC Center actually going operational now.
ngl the valuation case is the tricky part. All three are sitting at PE ratios in the 97th to 98th percentile historically. That's not a cheap entry. The bull thesis is that equipment names are structurally less cyclical than memory chips, smoother revenue profile, steadier AI infrastructure exposure.
Pulled the earnings preview from MooMoo and the TSMC feedback loop angle is interesting, shortening cycles from quarterly to weekly.
I'm watching LRCX most closely given the margin profile, net profit margin cleared 30% last quarter. But at these multiples, any guidance miss is gonna hurt. Anyone adding before earnings or fading the run-up here?
