Macro setup heading into H2 looks way more fragile than the market is pricing in

Been tracking the macro picture pretty closely this year and honestly the complacency right now is hard to ignore. Rates staying higher for longer was supposed to be the big headwind, but credit spreads are barely flinching and equities are acting like a soft landing is fully guaranteed.

The thing is, cumulative tightening takes time to bite. We have not seen the full lag effect work through commercial real estate, regional bank balance sheets, or consumer credit. The data keeps coming in mixed but the market keeps reading it as goldilocks.

Checked the macro flow data on MooMoo and institutional positioning still looks offside relative to what a genuine slowdown scenario would require. Someone is going to be wrong here, either the bond market or equities, and they are telling very different stories right now.

My base case is that H2 brings a volatility spike that catches the long-only crowd off guard. Not calling a crash, just saying the risk/reward for chasing here is poor.

Am I reading this wrong or is anyone else sitting on more cash than usual waiting for a cleaner entry?