WTI ripped $79 → $88 on renewed Iran/Hormuz risk, which undoes the exact thing that cooled last week's CPI

WTI's moved from roughly $79 to above $88, up over 4% today to a six-week high. driver is supply-route risk, renewed US-Iran fighting, Hormuz concerns again, Houthi threats against Saudi tankers, and some vessels rerouting around the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea. straightforward geopolitical risk premium going back into the price.

the structure is clean if you look at the chart. price sat in a $79-80.50 range absorbing supply, broke out on the 17th, gapped higher over the weekend as the market repriced, then made higher highs and higher lows with every pullback bought. the acceleration came once $85 gave way, that's where short stops and momentum orders stacked on top of the fundamental bid, and you can see volume expanding through the strongest candles. it's currently rejecting around $88.30-88.50 with an upper wick and a few red candles, which reads as profit-taking after a near-vertical run rather than a confirmed reversal.

but here's the part i keep coming back to. last week's CPI came in cool largely *because* energy fell 5.7% the biggest monthly drop since April 2020 and that was the Iran de-escalation unwinding the premium with a lag. now the premium is going straight back in. if this holds, the energy line that dragged inflation down is the same line that pushes it back up next print. the disinflation everyone celebrated was partly borrowed from a geopolitical situation that just reversed.

(worth noting this is a CFD feed, so price and volume differ slightly from NYMEX futures.)

genuinely curious

does the risk premium stick this time, or unwind again in weeks like the last one did? that round-trip burned a lot of people.

for anyone trading it are you treating $85 as the line that matters for structure, or is that too obvious a level now that everyone's watching it?

and is anyone actually repositioning for a hotter energy component in the next CPI, or is that too far ahead to trade?