Macro rotation or just noise? Trying to make sense of this market structure
https://preview.redd.it/f5ibvxy53wfh1.png?width=1695&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1ac0168d7ba42fb395baedda4ff5a72ee49612d
Been watching cross-asset flows pretty closely lately and something feels off. Rates are doing one thing, equities another, and credit spreads are basically shrugging at all of it.
The divergence between real yields and equity multiples is at a level that historically doesn't hold for long. Either earnings have to catch up fast or something reprices. Pulled some charts on MooMoo and the breadth data is not exactly confirming the index move.
My read is we're in a late-cycle positioning game where large allocators are rotating defensively but keeping index exposure for tracking reasons. That creates the illusion of strength with fragile internals underneath.
Not calling a top, tbh this market has humiliated better analysts than me. But the risk/reward on adding here feels asymmetric in the wrong direction.[more>>>>](https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/73550434?global_content=%7B%22promote_content%22:%2211067213%22,%22promote_id%22:20795,%22promote_type%22:43,%22sub_promote_id%22:1%7D)
Anyone else seeing the same internal divergence, or am I reading too much into it?