Earnings season is back. After getting burned by an IV crush on $META last Q3, where I got hammered on a straddle, I’ve completely overhauled my pre-entry checklist.
This quarter, I’m taking a different approach:
First, I track unusual activity to filter out the hedge-flow noise and zoom in on directional bets. Then, I cross-reference that with smart earnings calendar to pinpoint the exact window and avoid getting caught in the typical pre-earnings IV expansion and post-earnings collapse. Finally, I run a P&L simulation on the options chain, checking Delta and Vega exposure to make sure my max loss is strictly within my risk appetite.
I’m currently watching $AMZN into Thursday’s print, with $META and $MSFT on Wednesday’s slate. Still scanning unusual activity into the rest of mega-cap week, waiting for the IV Rank to hit a sweet spot before deciding whether to take a long or short volatility structure. For those of you who trade earnings: what’s your process for picking strikes and expiration dates? Does anyone have a more systematic screening method?
