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REDDIT

SK Hynix: 76% operating margin and the stock dropped 15%. what am i missing

SK Hynix numbers: revenue +257% yoy, operating profit +557%, 76% operating margin, best half in company history. DRAM prices up \~30% in the quarter.

stock fell 14.7%. kospi triggered a circuit breaker. hynix down 41% on the month.

been chewing on this all morning.

the thing I keep coming back to is buried in the earnings Q&A. someone asked whether the spike in conventional DRAM prices would pull HBM pricing up with it. answer was basically no, HBM gets negotiated separately on long term agreements.

so their best product has fixed pricing, their commodity product is where all the upside actually came from, and they're shifting capacity toward the fixed one.

which makes the LTAs kind of strange in hindsight? everyone treated multi-year take-or-pay contracts as the bull case. seems like that's also what stopped them capturing the melt up.

is contracted revenue a negative in a commodity business at peak pricing? feels like it should be an earnings quality premium and it's behaving like a discount.

anyone seen this pattern somewhere else?