Is Nokia‘s post-earnings setup a ”sold-out bottom“ or a value trap? Trying to poke holes in my own thesis

Want to stress-test a read on NOK before acting on it. Pushback welcome.

Setup: Stock ran \~116% over the past year, then dropped \~40% from its June high into Q2 earnings. Q2 (reported July 23) beat on the top line — revenue +8%, Optical Networks +19%, comparable operating profit €434M vs \~€382M consensus — and they raised full-year guidance to €2.1–2.6B.

My original bullish thesis was a flow argument: the marginal sellers already puked into the pre-earnings drop, and buyers who wanted proof of the AI/datacenter story now have it, so demand should tick up.

The more I dig, the more holes I find:
\- The selloff looks information-driven, not positioning-driven — Ericsson's chip-cost warning kicked it off, and NOK underperformed its sector on both up and down days (looks like distribution, not a one-time flush).
\- What scared people off was margins, not revenue — and the margin proof point (H2 needs \~14% op margin vs 9% in Q2) doesn't land until Q3 in October. So the "buyers get confirmation" leg only half-happened.
\- Short interest is \~1% of float — no forced-buyer fuel.
\- After a 116% run, most holders are still green, so supply is probably elastic on bounces.

Questions:
\- Is "sellers are exhausted" ever reliable when the drop was fundamental, not mechanical? How do you tell the two apart in real time?
\- For NOK holders: what's your actual edge — the AI-optical margin story, or just the ADR being cheap on forward earnings (\~24x)?
\- What would actually change your mind — Q3 margins, EPS revisions, something else?

Not after "moon" or "it's dead" — genuinely trying to find the flaw either way.