[https://open.substack.com/pub/somethings0ff/p/nobodys-buying-this-issue-2-whsmith?utm\_source=app-post-stats-page&r=rc0eo&utm\_medium=ios](https://open.substack.com/pub/somethings0ff/p/nobodys-buying-this-issue-2-whsmith?utm_source=app-post-stats-page&r=rc0eo&utm_medium=ios)
“The market is pricing a distressed retailer about to report a 78p per-share loss, encumbered by a suspended dividend and a recent emergency equity raise. What the algorithmic screens miss is that the loss is a non-cash accounting illusion, the balance sheet is now permanently de-risked, and the core of their "broken" US division is actually a compounding 10%-margin convenience business, attached to the most defensible specialty retail franchise in Britain. Probability-weighting five scenarios, including a total write-off of North America, yields a base case of 520p and an expected value of 506p. This is the ultimate asymmetric setup: you are buying a cash-gushing global tollbooth at a distressed price, getting paid 2.6 times more for being right than you lose for being wrong.”
Looks to be a messy turnaround situation but the underlying travel business looks to be very robust.
