WU: CEO bought $1.5M of stock. Dividend at 10.1%. Graham Score 5/7. Here's the full algorithmic analysis.
Quick transparency note before the analysis:
The calculations in this report run on an algorithm I built myself — Graham criteria, Earnings Quality framework, all coded from scratch. Data from Yahoo Finance and SEC filings.
An AI agent (CrewAI) narrates the output in the structure I designed. The numbers come from the algorithm. The methodology is mine.
My goal: Graham-style analysis without emotional bias. The system applies the criteria consistently — I see the result after it runs, not before.
No position in WU.
**The Western Union Company (WU) — FY2025 Analysis**
**Key numbers at a glance:**
* Price: $9.31 | Market Cap: $3.07B (Mid Cap)
* Trailing P/E: 6.37x (sector median: 12.9x)
* Graham moderate P/E: 4.89x (threshold: 15x)
* P/E × P/B: 20.45 (Graham ceiling: 22.5)
* Dividend yield: 10.10% ($0.94/share, unchanged 5 years)
* Graham Score: 5/7
**Why it caught my attention: insider buying**
CEO Devin McGranahan purchased 176,470 shares (\~$1.50M) in open-market transactions in August 2025. CFO Matthew Cagwin followed with 17,500 shares ($146K).
Open-market purchases by both the CEO and CFO at depressed prices are one of the strongest signals in Graham analysis. These aren't stock awards — this is personal money.
**Graham Score: 5/7**
* ✅ Adequate Size — $4.05B revenue (threshold \~$700-800M)
* ❌ Financial Condition — Current ratio 1.13x (need 2.0x); LT debt $2.92B vs working capital $567M
* ✅ Earnings Stability — Positive net income all 7 available years
* ✅ Dividend Record — 20 years uninterrupted (exactly at threshold)
* ❌ Earnings Growth — EPS declined 4.65% vs required +33%
* ✅ Moderate P/E — Graham P/E 4.89 ≤ 15
* ✅ Price to Assets — P/E × P/B = 20.45 ≤ 22.5
**Earnings Quality flag**
This is where it gets interesting. In 2022 and 2024, net income dramatically exceeded operating cash flow (by $329M and $528M respectively) — a red flag that signals earnings inflated by non-cash items.
In 2024, $393M of "profit" came from one-time deferred tax benefits and an IRS settlement. Not real earnings.
In 2025, operating cash flow ($543.7M) finally exceeded net income ($499.6M) — the first clean alignment in years. The 2025 margin of 12.33% is likely closest to normalized earnings power.
**The bear case in two lines:**
Revenue has declined every single year: $5.07B (2021) → $4.05B (2025). That's -20% cumulative. The 10% yield is a falling stock price, not dividend growth.
**The bull case:**
P/E of 6.37x on a company with 20 years of uninterrupted dividends, $392.9M free cash flow, and two senior executives buying personal shares at the bottom. The "Beyond" strategy (digital payments expansion, Intermex acquisition, digital wallets) is either the turnaround or the distraction.
Happy to discuss the methodology or any of the numbers in comments.