Posts  / ORCL  / #POST-240254
REDDIT

Oracle's numbers are insane but the stock just won't stop falling. Down 25% in two weeks.

Oracle reported Q4 FY2026 a week ago $19.2B revenue (+21% YoY), cloud infrastructure up 93% to $5.8B, EPS of $2.11 beating estimates by 15 cents, and a record $32B in operating cash flow for the year. Backlog sits at $638B.

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The stock opened 10% lower the next morning and hasn't recovered. It's now at $187 down from $248 just two weeks ago.

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The market is terrified of the capex number. $55.6B for the year, up 162%. Free cash flow is deep in the red. They're planning to raise another $40B. Everyone sees a cash bonfire and runs.

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Fair enough. But here's what I keep coming back to this isn't a company in trouble. They're growing revenue 21%. Their cloud business is nearly doubling. Operating cash flow hit a record. The capex is aggressive, sure, but it's going into AI infrastructure that already has a $638B pipeline of committed demand.

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The stock is trading at about $188. That's roughly 21-22x the annualized Q4 EPS. For a company growing the top line 21% with a cloud segment compounding at 93%, that doesn't scream overvalued to me even with the capex overhang.

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Am I being naive about how much this capex will actually return? Or is the market so allergic to AI spending right now that it's creating an actual opportunity? Curious what others who've dug into the OCI unit economics are seeing.