TYL hit a 52-week low today…
Tyler Technologies is government software, municipal ERP, tax appraisal, public safety. Boring stuff. But they have 45,000 installations across every state and their clients basically never leave (2% annual churn).
Stock is down 55% from its high and just touched a new 52-week low at $277. The business though? 21 consecutive quarters of 20%+ SaaS growth. Free cash flow nearly doubled over the last two years. Management just bought back 2.5% of outstanding shares this quarter alone.
Only about half their install base has moved to cloud so far — those conversions are already in the pipeline and each one comes in at higher revenue than the old maintenance contract.
I think the market is pricing in almost no growth for a company with a pretty visible growth runway.
Curious if anyone else has done work on this or has a real bear case beyond "government spending could get cut."