We're basically halfway through 2026, so I went back to the "Reddit's 2026 Stock Picks" thread from Jan 1 (the one that ranked the most-mentioned names across r/stocks, r/wallstreetbets, and r/investing) and checked how those picks actually held up. Everything below uses mid-July numbers, so it's approximate. I'm not pretending this is a backtested portfolio, just a gut check.
For context, the S&P 500 is up about 8.8% YTD.
The moonshots:
MU (\~+340%) was the best call on the entire list, full stop. It touched an all-time high of $1,255 after that blowout Q3 print in late June, though it's pulled back about 22% from the peak since.
NBIS (\~+158%). The neocloud trade just kept ripping.
AMD (\~+160%). Quietly one of the strongest mega caps of the year on AI server demand.
The "fine I guess" tier:
GOOGL (+14%) is the only Mag 7 name actually beating the index. NVDA (\~+10%) is green but honestly feels like it's treading water compared to the hype.
RKLB was the #1 most-mentioned pick and it's only \~+8.6% YTD on paper, but the path was rough. It ran to about $151 in late May and has coughed up almost half of that, down \~28% in the last month alone. The scorecard really hides the ride on this one.
The laggards:
PLTR (\~-25%). A big loved name on the sub two years running and the biggest letdown of the first half.
ASTS is down double digits over the last quarter after a massive multi-year run.
What sticks out to me is that the picks doing the real work were the higher-beta mid caps (MU, NBIS, AMD), not the mega-cap "safe" names everybody agreed on. And the #1 crowd favorite gave back most of its gains in six weeks. Concentration works until it doesn't.
So which of these is an actual dip versus a broken thesis (PLTR, ASTS, RKLB), and which winner would you personally let ride into the back half?