I followed unusual option flow signals for all of April. Here are the actual trades, wins and losses

For the past two months I have been tracking institutional options flow and actually trading the setups it generates. Not paper trading. Real entries with real size.

April is now fully closed out so I can share the complete picture.

The idea behind flow-following is simple: when institutions buy large blocks of calls on a specific strike before a stock moves, that activity shows up in the tape. Volume exceeds open interest on the contract, premium is ask-side (buyers initiating), and the same ticker gets flagged multiple times in a session. I track when those conditions line up and take the trade if the chart confirms.

Here are the documented trades with full entry and exit:

MRVL $170 Call, expiry May 15

Entry: $1.70 on April 17

Exit: $3.73

Result: +$203 (+119%)

The scanner flagged 5 separate institutional alerts on this contract in one session. Stock was at $139.32 at the time -- the $170 strike was $30 out of the money. That is the kind of conviction that stands out.

MRVL $165 Call, expiry May 8

Entry: $3.50 on April 20

Exit: $3.23

Result: -$27 (-7.71%)

This one did not work. The strike was too close to where the stock was already trading. In hindsight the better setup was the deeper OTM call from three days earlier. I logged it and moved on.

CCJ $140 Call, expiry June 18

Entry: $4.75 on April 20

Exit: $5.25

Result: +$50 (+10%)

Steady call accumulation in CCJ over several sessions before the price reacted. The longer expiry gave it room. Smaller return but cleaner setup.

For the full month I tracked positions in MU, AMD, NVDA, INTC, and GOOGL following the same methodology. Total realized P&L for April across all

positions: +$2,868.94.

The one thing that surprised me most: the RSI of the stock at the time of the flow alert predicted outcomes more than premium size did.

Signals where RSI was 55-65 at alert time: 86% win rate over 3 days. Signals where RSI was above 75 at alert time: 53% win rate.

Flow coming into a stock that has already run hard does not have the same edge as flow coming into a stock that is firm but not extended. I now filter out anything above RSI 68 before I even look at the contract details.

Curious whether anyone else tracks RSI at the time of the alert rather than just using it as a general market filter. Does your experience with flow signals match this?