Posts  / USO  / #POST-237946
REDDIT

Are long-term puts on crude oil futures ETF's not an obvious idea?

It seems extremely likely that the oil price will be much lower than the current price in a year or two, let alone 952 days from now, when the furthest out USO options end. I know that funds like USO gradually lose money due to contract rollover, but it seems like that would be beneficial to put options, right?

I was thinking it could also be used as a hedge for short/mid-term oil calls, so I wouldn't be completely screwed if the conflict ends and oil goes the wrong direction. And if you played it right, you could make money on the call, and then make money later after the price returns to something normal-ish.

Am I missing something obvious or is a LEAPS put on oil a solid play? It just seems like such an obvious investment, I'm surprised that I haven't really seen anyone talking about it... Which makes me wonder if there's some kind of giant flaw that's obvious to more experience traders.

EDIT: the downside, which I didn't fully appreciate, is just how expensive long-term USO put options are now compared to the relatively small benefit. They are relatively safe bets, but they're priced accordingly. Unless you go way out of the money, you're only realistically going to get profit about 1/3rd of what you spend on it. It's probably not worth the risk and upfront cost unless oil goes a lot higher.