The market is basically pricing a $1B cash pile and two profitable businesses at $1.3B as if they are going to zero in less than a year.
First off the company has $900M in net cash which is equivalent to about $3.75 in share value.
They have an international business in Southeast Asia and Australia producing $65M EBITDA and growing at 35%. This is conservatively worth 10x which would be $2.65 in share value. Probably higher as they benefit from economies of scale and comps like SE trade at 18x. Currently the stock is at $5.40 which is less than $3.75 + $2.65 =$6.40.
Then they have a $350-400M EBITDA China business. Regulations came out in October which hurt the business causing 20% yoy declines which impacted Q4 and Q1 as they were no longer able to lend to consumers above a 24% rate cap. Q1 number just came out which show that part of the business still rolling off, but actual 7% growth from Q4 to Q1 which implies the business is likely to stabilize and actually grow once the rest of the 24%+ capped rate performance falls off in Q3 2026. I like buying stocks where I get $400M EBITDA businesses for free.
The company announced a $150M buyback authorization on their earnings call Monday because they also don’t think their China business is shutting down this morning. They have bought back over $500M since 2018. The new buyback authorization commences Friday. I genuinely don’t believe this stock is even close to fairly priced until it at least doubles and there is meaningful downside protection to the bet because it is backed by cash and a strong growing international business.
I’m in FINV at an average price of around $4.80 and holding rather than adding right now because it’s already such a large portion of my portfolio, but the stock seems genuinely mispriced. Not financial advice. Do your own diligence.