Guidewire Software DD - insurance cloud leader trading 70% below targets with earnings right around the corner
Guidewire keeps showing up in my screens as a wide moat software name that’s still undervalued, and earnings are due early June. They run the core systems for property and casualty insurers - policy admin, billing, claims. Sticky stuff with deep integration and big switching costs. They’re moving everything to cloud, which is lifting recurring revenue and margins.
Latest quarter revenue grew 24% YOY with subscriptions up 33%. They raised full-year guidance to $1.438-$1.448B, about 20% growth. EPS beat estimates and cash flow stays positive with over 1.3b in cash. Price around $135-$137, market cap roughly $12b. Street targets $228-$240 for 70%+ upside and a Buy lean.
Earnings probably hit June 4. Recent outlook raise and AI features in insurance workflows have momentum. Deregulation talk in financials could help adoption too. Risks include cyclical insurance spending and long implementation times. Competition exists. I’m long a small position and may add on weakness.
Fits the moat, scaling FCF, positive coverage, and discount profile we hunt for. Anyone following GWRE? Thoughts on the cloud shift? Any red flags before the print?