I’m talking the full picture here. What’s the catalyst that finally tips it over? Then how do things look for the broader market, the economy, society at large, and AI development itself at 30 days out, 90, 180, a full year, and maybe even longer?
Is the catalyst something boring like a couple big AI names missing earnings expectations and guidance gets walked back? Market takes a 15-20% haircut on the big tech names, but it bottoms fast. 30 days later the panic selling is over and rotation starts. By 90 days the survivors are already climbing back on real revenue numbers. Economy barely notices. Society keeps using the tools that already work. AI keeps chugging along at a slower but still solid pace. A year out we’re mostly back to normal growth, just with more realistic valuations.
Or is the catalyst is a combo of sky-high energy costs shutting down data centers plus surprise regulation that kills the easy funding. Full on 2000-style crash, 60-80% wipeout across the sector, drags the whole market down hard. 30 days is pure chaos with circuit breakers and margin calls. At 90 days layoffs hit tech and related industries hard. By 180 days we’re in an AI winter where projects get shelved left and right. A full year later the economy is grinding through a mild recession and society is skeptical of any new tech promises. AI development slows to a crawl for a few years until the real breakthroughs prove themselves again.
Those are just my spitballs. Curious to hear what the sub actually thinks instead of just the daily bubble memes.