$WEN International is a Goldmine 🍔 Boots-on-the-Ground DD in Jakarta. PT Revised to $23 🚀🚀
TL;DR:
The 🌈🐻 jannies at WSB nuked my god-tier Ape DD from the front page because they hate money, so I'm dropping it here for you fellow degenerates instead. 🦍💎🙌🚀
Visited a Wendy's in Indonesia and it was packed to the tits. Burgers sell for 26% less than in the US, but labor costs 84% less. International margin expansion is going to be massive. Re-ran my DCF model and I’m doubling my Bull Case PT from $11 to $23.
📜 The Prequel
Listen up degenerates. In my previous post, I ran a conservative DCF model on $WEN factoring in just 1% revenue growth.
[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ufajpz/wen\_dcf\_at\_just\_1\_rev\_growth\_83\_base\_the\_pump/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1ufajpz/wen_dcf_at_just_1_rev_growth_83_base_the_pump/)
Base PT: $8.30 Bull Case PT: $11.00+
The recent pump only erased the discount, it didn't even touch the actual upside. But here's the kicker: my original model only took the US market into account.
✈️ Boots-on-the-Ground DD in Asia
I recently realized Wendy's has a massive international footprint, so I decided to do some real on-site DD while in Jakarta, Indonesia. I walked into a local branch yesterday and, as you can see from the attached pic, the place was packed to the brim. Line out the door, registers printing non-stop.
But here is where the math gets incredibly juicy for our margins.
🧮 The Regard-Math (Margin Expansion Incoming)
Let's talk OPEX. We all know labor is the absolute biggest cost factor in the fast-food industry. Here is the breakdown between the US and Indonesia:
* 🇺🇸 US Dave's Single: \~$5.4
* 🇮🇩 Indonesian Dave's Single: Rp 68,000 (\~$4)
Top-line hit: -26% revenue per unit.
But wait, look at the OPEX...
* 🇺🇸 US Crew Labor: \~$12.00+/hour
* 🇮🇩 Indonesian Crew Labor: \~$2.00/hour
Bottom-line save: -84% labor cost.
So yes, you are getting 26% less revenue per burger, but your biggest operating expense is slashed by over 84%, not to mention significantly cheaper local ingredient sourcing and real estate overhead.
🎯 The Verdict
Because of this international unit economics structure, I foresee a YoY margin expansion of at least 5%.
When I factor this massive international OPEX advantage and margin expansion back into my original DCF model, $11 is way too bearish. The numbers don't lie.
🚀 Revised Price Target: $11.00 ➡️ $23.00
Positions: **8.5C 7/2**
I think this gives the best risk:reward, trading at about \~0.35$/share or $35/contract(100 shares)
a $20 lottery ticket will give you 30x or \~$600 when $WEN hits $20 by end of week\]
Not financial advice, I just like square burgers. 💎🙌