I've been watching what he's been saying about Cisco and Nvidia since he first put it out there. It was hard to dismiss, hard to time in the typical Burry style.
He might be right about Nvidia, but how long do we have to wait for his prediction to come true? His plays always take super long. I am a bit impatient for that long play of his, so started looking at it a bit differently and started focusing on the short term moves. Hours and between 1 and 10 days and the next session close kind of stuff.
Went down that rabbit hole for a while, which led me to grade every directional outcome against the actual next day close. Over 600 of them on Nvidia.
Up days repeated correctly about 75% of the time and down days about 70% of the time, which is good cause 50% is considered random, which is equal to a coinflip.
5 points difference between up and down, a bit tighter than I expected on a stock like this. Most high momentum stocks have a clear directional bias, Nvidia doesn't. I haven't seen that kind of balance on a stock that has been this much in the spotlight.
For someone not interested in waiting years for his long term prediction to play out that number is actually useful. If a stock resolves in the same direction the next session 70 to 75% of the time you don't need to know whether Burry is right in 2027. You just need to know what today's move is saying about tomorrow.
The thing that actually worries me is whether that consistency starts breaking down quietly before the price does. That's what happened with Cisco, their short term predictability crumbled before their collapse. A lot of people were more focused on valuation and missed the boat.
In my opinion that is what´s worth tracking, instead of waiting 2 years for his prediction to play out.
I look at it every morning now. Curious if anyone else shifted focus to the short term while all this plays out or has any other view they could share?