NVIDIA is still extremely dominant, but is the market getting a bit too optimistic?

After seeing Micron’s results come in better than expected, I went back and took a deeper look at NVIDIA. Honestly, what the company is still pulling off is pretty impressive.

In Q1 FY2027, they reported $81.6 billion in revenue, with $75.2 billion coming from Data Center alone (+92% year-over-year). Data Center now makes up over 90% of their total business. Everything else has basically become secondary.

What I find most impressive isn’t just the chips themselves, but the entire ecosystem around them. CUDA is still very dominant, and with Blackwell ramping up, they’re managing to maintain a real technological lead. Even though AMD is making progress and some hyperscalers are developing their own chips, most large AI models are still running primarily on NVIDIA for now.

That said, I’m starting to have some questions around valuation and how long this dominance can last. The stock is trading at around 30x trailing earnings and roughly 20x forward earnings. It’s not crazy given the growth, but it does assume NVIDIA will keep delivering very strong results for several more years. If AI spending from the big cloud providers slows down earlier than expected, the multiple could compress pretty quickly.

Overall, I’m still positive on NVIDIA for the medium term (I even added to my position on Bitget Stock during the recent pullbacks), especially as long as they maintain their technological and software advantage. Even if the stock keeps dropping, at least I’m collecting dividends. But I do think the scenario where they just keep crushing it for another 3–4 years without any hiccups is a bit too optimistic.

What do you guys think? Do you see NVIDIA as a long-term hold, or are you becoming more cautious on the valuation and competition risks?