Are we just ignoring inflation now? Genuinely asking how you're positioning
This is the Hola Prime team's account, not a pitch, just a discussion we wanted to open up after this morning's data.
PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, came in at 3.8% year-over-year for April. That's up from 3.5% in March and 2.8% in February, so it's accelerating for a third straight month. Normally a print like that into an already-tense macro backdrop would sting. Instead the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushed to fresh record highs, and Q1 GDP got revised up to around 2% from a much weaker first read. Oil's still whipping around on the Iran/Hormuz headlines underneath all of it.
What we keep debating internally is whether the market is right to look through this or whether it's getting complacent. Strong growth can absner higher inflation for a while, until it doesn't, and yields force the issue.
No advice here, just want to hear how the room is framing it:
* Are you treating these records as real strength, or as a setup that gets unwound on the next yield spike?
* Has the hot PCE changed how you're sizing or holding swings, or are you ignoring it?
* What would actually make you flip more defensive here, yields, oil, or a growth wobble?