PLTR case study: spotting big moves using Bollinger Bands, Keltner Channels, and Falling Wedges
The thesis behind this PLTR case study is that Bollinger bands and Keltner Channels can be used on stocks that are displaying an Falling wedge pattern over an extended period of time to find stocks primed for big moves to the upside or downside once the squeeze resolves.
The setup is as follows:
(1) Bollinger bands now lie inside the Keltner channels (called TTM Squeeze.. attributed to John carted in TOS)
(2) stock has been falling for days, and has bounced off the support a couple of times
**DISCLAIMER: I am not a trade advisor and this post is only for Educational purposes. I will not be liable for any losses on trades based on this presentation .**
Bollinger Bands = mean ± 2 standard deviations (measures volatility statistically)
Keltner Channels = EMA ± 2 ATR (measures volatility via average true range)
When BBs contract inside KCs, statistical volatility (standard deviation) has dropped below realized range volatility (ATR). That's mathematically unusual — it means recent price action has been '*unusually quiet* ' relative to the stock's typical daily range. Energy is Building.
Bollinger bands (Solid lines - Orange/Magenta)
Keltner Channels (Dotted )
[Initial Setup Daily Trend on 5\/26\/2026](https://preview.redd.it/f6kgkfxly44h1.png?width=697&format=png&auto=webp&s=53350852d04606f243e6e28e5dfddc762119a77b)
WAITING FOR THE SQUEEZE TO RESOLVE TO THE UPSIDE OR DOWNSIDE
On 5/28/2026, the squeeze seemed to resolve to the updise. PLTR was up $10 for the day (from 134) and another $1.4 post-market. This is what it looked like at close on 5/28 on a daily trend:
[Market Close daily Trend 5\/28\/20206](https://preview.redd.it/qcnde65pz44h1.png?width=677&format=png&auto=webp&s=6319b1eff6a55f4c8c1432fc0ecfb36890d7b1dd)
This is what it looked like on an hourly trend on 5/28/2026 when the squeeze finally fired to the upside.
[Hourly trend on 5\/28\/2026](https://preview.redd.it/ak8ndmf0054h1.png?width=630&format=png&auto=webp&s=069a3a893391b3fc596360d8aad0c7791efee0c1)
on 5/29/2026, PLTR was up almost $5 in pre-market and ended up higher by $13.2 for the day.
[Daily trend on 5\/29\/2026](https://preview.redd.it/0zbky9g7154h1.png?width=603&format=png&auto=webp&s=763f3e53da143be6567776070cdd368f37cdbe32)
[Hourly Trend on 5\/29\/2026](https://preview.redd.it/lwopns0r154h1.png?width=583&format=png&auto=webp&s=b3866b275eb0d7a46936e9af4b6a533655b3e3c8)
The squeeze could have fired to the downside. The trader would then place a different trade e.g. waiting to see where the stock lands after a few days and sell some puts. A squeeze normally lasts 6-7 bars (on the histogram) and the trader must wait for confirmation that the the trend will not reverse and the squeeze fades rapidly.
EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. NO FINACE OT TRADE ADVICE.