BTC stuck under 80k, 527M in liquidations, PPI at 6%. The Fed pivot trade is dead for now.

BTC is at $76,869 this morning after another flush. 527 million in long liquidations on 24 hours, mostly from leverage builds that got too confident the 80k breakout was happening.

The underlying story is macro. April PPI printed at 6 percent, way hotter than expected. CPI hit 3.8 percent year over year, the highest since May 2023. Core stuck at 2.8. The probability of a rate hike by December went from 21.5 percent to 25 percent in a week, and the probability of any cut through 2027 just collapsed to basically zero.

So the entire "we wait for the pivot and BTC rips" thesis that fueled the run from January is on pause. The Fed is not your friend right now.

But here is the other side. Long term holders are sitting on 14.84 million BTC that has not moved in 155 plus days. April saw 2.44B in net spot ETF inflows, the strongest month since October 2025. Jane Street is rotating into ETH (82M added, 70 percent BTC reduction). So there is real demand, just not in size.

ETH is the one to watch in my opinion. The ratio chart looks like 2021 setup pre rotation. SOL already did its thing, up 13 percent on the week, breaking 90 to 95 with 39M of ETF inflows.

So the real question. Do you think this is the start of a bigger correction back to 65 to 70k, or just shaking out leverage before the next leg toward 90? And does ETH outperform from here?