Last week I published a bear case DCF on Comcast with a "dream scenario" of an NBCUniversal spinoff at $55-75 per share. This morning they announced it. Stock is up 20% premarket. Here's the original math.

Last week I ran a bear case DCF on Comcast using normalized FCF of $16B, assumed 3% annual decline for 12 straight years, 10% discount rate, and explicitly stripped $89B in net debt from the terminal value.

Bear case fair value: $30-38 per share against a $22 price.

At the end of the piece I wrote a "dream scenario" section:

"A company that spun off Versant doesn't seem unlikely to eventually spin off other pieces - broadband infrastructure or Universal Studios as a standalone entity. According to my sum-of-parts analysis, a spinoff scenario could put CMCSA at $55-75 per share."

This morning Comcast announced exactly that. NBCUniversal and Sky spinning off into a separate publicly traded company. Broadband, wireless, and business services staying in the remaining Comcast. Stock up 20% in premarket.

The broadband rump - which produced 24x the adjusted EBITDA of the content business in Q1 2026 - is now going to trade as a pure-play infrastructure company. The content business gets its own multiple separately.

Even after the 20% move the stock is still below my bear case fair value of $30-38. The spinoff still needs regulatory approval and closes in about a year. The story isn't over.

Full DCF with the math, the debt analysis, and the buyback cannibalization model here: [https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/buying-2-for-1-a-comcast-dcf-update](https://cavemanscreener.substack.com/p/buying-2-for-1-a-comcast-dcf-update)