May CPI drops tomorrow with the market pricing 4.2%, what's your number, and how does the tape react?

Not a pitch, just opening the floor before tomorrow's CPI because it feels like the biggest swing factor in a while.

Setup as we see it: headline CPI has climbed back to 3.8% as of April, you can see it in the chart, bottoming near 2.4% in early 2025 and turning higher since. The May print due tomorrow is expected to show more pressure, with some estimates near 4.2%.

That lands right after Friday's hot jobs report and last week's chip rout, and it's flipped the whole conversation from "when does the Fed cut" to "could they hike." So this isn't a routine data point; it's the number that either calms the rate-hike fear or pours fuel on it.

What makes it tricky is the asymmetry people are talking about: a soft print could spark real relief given how stretched nerves are, while a hot one feeds straight into the higher-for-longer story that just knocked tech down. Same release, two very different tapes.

Before the number's out, genuinely curious where the room stands:

* What's your actual expectation for headline CPI tomorrow, in line, hotter, or a cooldown nobody's positioned for?
* Are you trading the release itself, fading the first move, or staying flat until it settles?
* Which matters more for the reaction in your view, the headline number, or core/the components underneath it?