Everyone says "hot PPI = stronger dollar" but the last 14 releases show USD up only 36% of the time. Real edge or myth?

Not a pitch, just putting a question to the FX side of the room ahead of today's PPI.

The standard logic is clean: a hot PPI points to wholesale inflation, which lifts yields and Fed-hike expectations, which supports the dollar. And right now that backdrop is real, PPI's been climbing (the latest readings up near 6% headline / 4.4% core on the chart attached), yields are elevated, and the market's flipped from pricing cuts to debating hikes.

But here's what made us pull this up: when you actually look at how the dollar has behaved after the last \~14 PPI releases, the "hot PPI = stronger dollar" story barely holds. The dollar finished the event day higher only about a third of the time, and one day later it's roughly a coin flip. The forward returns are a sea of mixed green and red, not a clean directional edge. (Chart's from PPI Dollar Insights, using the Fed's broad dollar index.)

So the setup that "should" help the dollar has a pretty unreliable track record of actually doing it.

Curious how the FX traders here handle it:

* Do you actually trade the dollar off PPI, or is it CPI and the Fed that move your USD positioning?
* When the "textbook" reaction and the historical stats disagree like this, which do you trust?
* In today's tape, Iran/oil dominating, yields elevated, does PPI even get a clean dollar reaction, or does the war drown it out?