I am not buying SPCX tomorrow and this is the exact math that changed my mind

Everyone is excited about the spacex IPO opening on nasdaq tomm at $135 a share, i get it that the business is genuinely impressive like it does US space launches, starlink and revenue is growing at 33% year on year. After the xAI merger you are also getting grok and the X platform under one ticker and is available as fractional shares on bitpanda. The story writes itself.

But this is why I got off the train,i will be sharing lots of numbers so prepare urself,at $1.77 trillion and $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, SPCX opens at 95x price to sales. Lets be generous and assume 30% revenue growth for the next two years,it gets you to roughly $31.5 billion in revenue by end of 2027. even if the market still gives it a frothy 50x multiple at that point which would already be among the highest of any public company and the valuation would be around $1.58 trillion and thats an 11% decline from today's IPO price two years from now in a best case scenario that requires flawless execution.

And thats before accounting for the $30 billion annual cash burn, the $4.94 billion net loss in 2025 or the fact that one man with 85% of the votes and zero accountability to the board

I like SpaceX as a company but i just dont like it at this price on day one so i will be waiting for the lock up expiry in six months when insiders can sell and the price actually reflects reality. Might look stupid if it rips but i am fine with that.

Am I missing something here or is the valuation just genuinely indefensible at open?

Not financial advice.