Jobs came in hot Friday and stocks AND bitcoin both got hit. So much for the hedge

Been watching this for a couple weeks and Friday kind of confirmed it for me. May payrolls printed 172k against an 80k estimate, unemployment held at 4.3%, and instead of that being read as a healthy economy, everything sold off. S&P down 2.6%, Nasdaq down 2.6%, and BTC dropped right along with it into the low 61s after tagging 59.1k intraday.

The logic is that a hot labor market kills the rate cut story and puts a hike back on the table. 10Y jumped to 4.54%. Higher for longer is back, and risk assets all got repriced at once.

What I keep coming back to is that there is no diversification left in this. People held BTC as the thing that moves when stocks don't. Right now bitcoin and the Nasdaq are basically the same trade. When yields rip, both bleed. When chips sell off, both bleed. The correlation has been sitting near record highs and Friday was just another data point.

Meanwhile gold has been near its highs the whole time. So the store of value bid is real, it is just not going into bitcoin, it is going into actual gold.

I am not calling a bottom or a top here. I just think the framework a lot of people run, where good economic data is bullish for risk and BTC protects you in a selloff, has been wrong for a while and Friday made it obvious.