Been sitting on the sidelines with BTC for a couple weeks waiting for the macro picture to actually agree with what the chart was doing, and I think we finally got there. My crypto scoring has BTC at 38/100 which is firmly bearish — real rates are elevated and above their moving average, the Fed expectations spread is showing more hikes priced in than the recent trend, and risk sentiment is straight up RISK OFF with VIX elevated. The one positive is hashrate ticking up 5.6% but honestly one bullish driver against four bearish ones isn't a contrarian thesis, it's just noise.
Daily chart agrees, which is what made me actually pull the trigger instead of just watching. We're in a confirmed downtrend on the 1D with continuation rate sitting at 70.6% historically, and the daily is currently in that monitoring-for-breakout phase which usually means a fresh LL is brewing. That's the highest quality structural backdrop you can get for a swing short imo.
Down on the 15m we just printed L193 after rejecting from H192, and price pulled back into what looks like a premium zone around 63k — rejected right at the 0.62 fib which lines up with the pullback depth stats showing 0.62 as the historical median for this kind of move. Continuation rate on the 15m structure is 69.3% with a BOS/retest bounce rate of 69.2% on the bearish side, so the odds are tilted but not a slam dunk.
I'm short at 63,150 with stop at 64,558 (above the recent swing high — if that breaks the whole thesis is dead and I'm out, no debate). Splitting into 3 targets — 50% off at 60,680, another 30% at 58,681 if momentum carries, and letting the last 20% run to 57,302. Extension rates on the dashboard are pricing this at 1x / 1.71x / 2.2x which matched up nicely with where the obvious liquidity pools sit below.
We'll see. If macro flips risk-on overnight or the daily fails to break I'll cut earlier than planned.